| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$7.5B | A$11.437B | A$7.129B | A$7.660B |
| Imports - M/M | -7.9% | -1.9% | -2.9% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | -3.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | |
| Exports - M/M | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| Exports -Y/Y | -7.5% | -11.4% | -11.6% |
Highlights
Australia's balance of trade in goods widened from A$7.660 billion in October to A$11.437 billion in November, well above the consensus forecast of A$7.5 billion. Exports recorded a bigger increase while imports fell at a sharper rate.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 1.7 percent on the month in November after advancing 0.8 percent in October. Exports of non-rural goods recorded stronger growth, while exports of rural goods increased modestly after a previous decline. Exports fell 7.5 percent on the year in November after dropping 11.6 percent in October.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 7.9 percent on the month in November, weakening from an decline of 2.9 percent in October. Imports of consumption goods fell at a sharper pace, while imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell after a previous increase. Imports of capital goods fell at a less pronounced pace. Total imports fell 3.9 percent on the year in original terms in November after increasing 3.1 percent in October.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 1.7 percent on the month in November after advancing 0.8 percent in October. Exports of non-rural goods recorded stronger growth, while exports of rural goods increased modestly after a previous decline. Exports fell 7.5 percent on the year in November after dropping 11.6 percent in October.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 7.9 percent on the month in November, weakening from an decline of 2.9 percent in October. Imports of consumption goods fell at a sharper pace, while imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell after a previous increase. Imports of capital goods fell at a less pronounced pace. Total imports fell 3.9 percent on the year in original terms in November after increasing 3.1 percent in October.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in November is a surplus of A$7.5 billion versus October's surplus of A$7.1 billion that saw imports fall 1.9 percent on the month and exports rise 0.4 percent.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
