ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Adjusted Index53.252.4 to 53.256.354.7
Unadjusted Index43.753.2

Highlights

The seasonally adjusted Ivey purchasing managers index for December is up to 56.3 after 54.7 in November and is the highest since 56.8 in April. The December index is above the consensus of 53.2 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The detail indexes point to moderate gains in employment and a speeding up in delivery times, and a modest rise in prices.

The seasonally adjusted index for employment is up to 57.9 in December after 55.3 in November and is the highest after 58.5 in September. The inventories index is little changed at 49.1 in December after 50.5 in November and has been hovering around the neutral mark since April. The deliveries index is up to 57.8 in December after 51.4 in November and points to a few delays along the supply chain. The index for prices is up to 64.5 in December after 62.1 in November. Although prices are on the rise, the pace is consistent with only modest increases.

The unadjusted Ivey purchasing managers index is down nearly 10 points to 43.7 in December after 53.2 in November. It is the softest reading since 40.6 in December 2022. Activity typically slips at year end, so the decline is not significant.

The unadjusted index for employment is little changed at 52.8 in December after 52.4 in November. The inventories index is down to 44.0 after 47.0 in the prior month and remains in contractionary territory for the fourth month in a row. The deliveries index is virtually unchanged at 50.8 in December from 50.6 in November and remains close to neutral for the third month in a row. The prices index is up to 62.6 om December from 59.4 in November.

Definition

The Ivey purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures purchasing activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month-end data. Five categories are covered in the survey: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting).

Description

The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question:"Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.

The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
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