The index of leading economic indicators extended its long contraction but less so than expected in December, edging only 0.1 percent lower versus Econoday's consensus for a fall of 0.3 percent and against 0.5 percent contraction in November. Nevertheless, the report warns once again that the index continues to signal the risk of recession ahead.

December's details are, for this report, unusually positive as six of the 10 components actually made positive contributions to the index. Yet these were outweighed by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high level of interest rates, and what was in December a low level of consumer confidence. The latter appears to have improved markedly based on Friday's consumer sentiment report for January.

Down by 0.5 percent in November, the index of leading economic indicators in December is expected to extend its long streak of decline, down a consensus 0.3 percent. This index has long been signaling a coming recession.

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.