Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% |
Highlights
The flash HICP also declined 0.2 percent versus December, trimming its yearly rate from 4.1 percent to 3.4 percent, now 1.4 percentage points above the ECB's target.
However, the slide in the annual CPI rate almost wholly attributable to energy, where the inflation rate dropped from 5.7 percent to 1.8 percent, and food, where the rate declined 1.5 percentage points to 5.7 percent. The fall in energy helped to halve the rate in overall manufactured goods to 0.7 percent but services edged a tick higher to 3.2 percent. Consequently, the core rate was probably only broadly stable.
Today's update bodes well for a weaker Eurozone headline inflation rate this month (flash data due tomorrow) but the ECB will be more focused on the core. The French RPI now stands at 18 and the RPI-P at 5, both measures indicating overall economic activity running just a little hotter than expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.