ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.1%0.1%0.1%
Year over Year3.7%3.7%3.7%

Highlights

Consumer prices were unrevised in the final data for December. A 0.1 percent monthly gain matched the provisional estimate and left the annual inflation rate at 3.7 percent, up from November's final 3.5 percent but still short of October's 4.0 percent. This was the first increase since August.

The final HICP similarly matched its flash 0.1 percent monthly rise, in turn leaving its yearly rate at 4.1 percent, up from the 3.9 percent mid-quarter print and 2.1 percentage points above the ECB's target.

The monthly acceleration in the annual CPI rate was due to energy, where inflation jumped from 3.1 percent to 5.7 percent, and services, where the rate moved up from 2.8 percent to 3.1 percent. Elsewhere, the rate in overall manufactured products fell from 2.2 percent to 1.4 percent while food eased from 7.8 percent to 7.2 percent. As a result, the core rate dipped a couple of ticks to 3.4 percent, its weakest mark since April 2022.

Accordingly, the final December data confirm a still declining trend in underlying inflation which will sit very well with the ECB and leave open the door to interest rate cuts later in the year. Today's updates put the French RPI at 25 and the RPI-P at 35. Economic activity in general is running rather hotter than generally expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected leaving a 0.1 percent monthly rise in prices and a 3.7 percent annual inflation rate, up from November's final 3.5 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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