ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.1%0.4%-0.3%
Year over Year-1.8%-1.8%

Highlights

Spending on manufactured goods rose 0.4 percent on the month in November, fully reversing October's unrevised 0.3 percent drop and easily beating the market consensus. However, annual growth was only unchanged at minus 1.8 percent and volumes were still fully 4.5 percent below their pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

November's monthly advance reflected a 1.2 percent gain in durables within which transport equipment rose 1.5 percent and household durables 1.0 percent. Textiles and clothing also gained 1.8 percent and other engineered goods 0.1 percent. Elsewhere, food was flat and energy up 1.4 percent. As a result, overall goods spending increased 0.7 percent, its first rise since July.

However, despite November's increase, average overall goods sales in the first two months of the quarter were down 0.8 percent versus their mean level in the previous period. Without a strong end to the year - and confidence remains historically weak - goods consumption will subtract from fourth quarter GDP growth. Even so, with today's updates putting the French ECDI at 25 and the ECDI-P at 35, economic activity in general is still running rather hotter than generally expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Spending is expected to dip 0.1 percent on the month after a 0.3 percent drop in October.

Definition

Consumption of manufactured goods by consumers is an indicator of consumer spending for household durable goods such as autos and furniture. The data are released separately as part of the report on total goods spending.

Description

This indicator is a measure of retail sales and is unique to France. It measures consumer spending for household durable goods such as autos and furniture. The data are seasonally and workday adjusted. These adjustments eliminate the fluctuations that are solely due to changes in the number of working days. The data appear to be particularly sensitive to the number of worked Saturdays. With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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