ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.1%0.5%-0.3%
Year over Year0.6%0.4%2.0%

Highlights

Industrial production had a respectable November, rising 0.5 percent on the month to beat the market consensus by some margin. The advance, which was the first since July, more than reversed October's unrevised decline but negative base effects saw annual growth slide from 2.0 percent to just 0.6 percent. Indeed, production was still some 4.7 percent below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Manufacturing output posted a smaller 0.3 percent monthly gain following a 0.2 percent increase previously. Within this, machinery and equipment (2.8 percent) was especially strong and well ahead of any other subsector while both transport equipment (minus 0.8 percent) and coke and refined petroleum products (minus 0.6 percent) recorded falls. Elsewhere, mining and quarrying, energy, water supply and waste management jumped 1.8 percent but construction was down 0.8 percent.

Despite November's rise, average overall industrial production in the first two months of the quarter was still 0.5 percent below its average level in the July-September period. Ignoring revisions, December will need at least a 1.3 percent monthly increase to secure a fourth quarter gain. Consequently, the sector looks likely to have subtracted from real GDP growth. However, with both the French RPI (17) and the RPI-P (20) above zero, overall economic activity is at least running a little hotter than expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

November production is expected to rise 0.1 percent on the month after falling 0.3 and 0.6 percent in the prior two months.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Manufacturing is seen as the best guide to underlying developments as some sectors can be very volatile and cause misleadingly large short-term swings in total industrial production.

Description

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded from the data. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
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