After two months of declines, exports of goods rose $4.1 billion or 2.5 percent in December to help narrow the US goods deficit by $0.8 billion to $88.5 billion. Imports worked against the balance, rising $3.2 billion or 1.3 percent.

Export details are led by sharp rebounds for both industrial supplies, up 4.9 percent, and foods, feeds & beverages which rose 4.8 percent. Consumer goods also gained as did"other goods" but unwanted declines were posted for both autos, down 3.3 percent which is a weak export category for the US, and also capital goods which is a strong category that fell 0.5 percent after rising only 0.1 percent in November.

Imports of capital goods also fell, down 0.8 percent in what is not a positive indication for domestic business investment. This follows November's even sharper 1.0 percent decline. Imports of industrial supplies rose 1.8 while imports of consumer goods rebounded 5.4 percent following, however, the prior month's 6.4 percent decline. Imports of vehicles, which had been very strong through mid-year, fell 1.1 percent after falling 0.5 percent in November.

Today's data are folded into the first estimate for first-quarter GDP where net exports made a substantially positive 0.43 percentage point contribution to the quarter's 3.3 percent annualized growth.

The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow by $0.8 billion to $88.5 billion in December after narrowing by $0.3 billion in November to $89.3 billion.

This monthly report offers advance import and export data on the goods components of the monthly trade report. Goods make up roughly two-thirds of the nation's exports and roughly three-quarters of imports.

Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in cross-border ownership.

Changes in the levels of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance), are valuable gauges of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Imports indicate demand for foreign goods here in the United States. Exports show foreign demand for U.S. goods. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.

Market reaction to this report is complex. Typically, the smaller the trade deficit, the more bullish it is for the dollar. Also, stronger exports are bullish for corporate earnings and the stock market. Like most economic indicators, the trade balance is subject to substantial monthly variability, especially when oil prices change.

It is also useful to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly. Trends in export activity reflect both the competitive position of American industry and the strength of domestic and foreign economic activity. U.S. exports will grow when: 1) U.S. product prices are lower than foreign product prices; 2) the value of the dollar is relatively weaker than that of foreign currencies; 3) foreign economies are growing rapidly.

Imports will increase when: 1) foreign product prices are lower than prices of domestically-produced goods; 2) the value of the dollar is stronger than that of other currencies; 3) domestic demand for goods and services is robust.