Building the case for patience, Jerome Powell stressed that inflation is"still too high" and that the path forward to the Federal Reserve's policy goal is"still uncertain" and"not assured". Noting that the PCE price index has slowed to 2.6 percent, the Fed chair nevertheless said FOMC members will need to see continuing evidence of improvement in order to"build confidence" that inflation is returning to the 2.0 percent objective.

On the question of when policy will begin to ease, Powell said it would"likely" be appropriate to begin dialing back prior rate hikes"sometime this year". He warned that cutting rates too soon could feed an acceleration in inflation and trigger a policy"reversal" that would require a return to rate hikes. Powell said the Fed is prepared to hold rates where they are"for longer if appropriate".

Over the course of the question and answer session, Powell had to strike a balance between the more optimistic outlook with a"good" economy and progress in reducing inflation, and an uncertain outlook. He said several times that while Fed policymakers are seeing meaningful improvement in inflation, they also want"greater confidence" that the trend will be sustained. He added that the timing and size of rate cuts are linked to sustaining confidence that inflation has been tamed in the current episode.

Powell reiterated that the FOMC is making its decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis and looking for a"continuation of the good data we have seen". In question is if the data are"sending us a true signal that we are on a sustainable path" of inflation reduction back to the two percent target. Fed policymakers remain"data dependent"

Powell said that at the January 30-31 meeting there was no proposal to cut rates. There was no official update to the summary of economic projections (SEP), but at present the"base case" for forecasts is that the US economy is healthy. However, he was cautious about the outlook and declined to say that the Fed had achieved a soft landing. Powell said,"I wouldn't say we've achieved that. I'm encouraged, we're encouraged, be we are not declaring victory." He added,"We have a ways to go."

Although there was no change in the approach to reducing the Fed's reserve holdings, Powell said that the FOMC plans a full discussion at the March 19-20 meeting.

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.