ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month2.0%1.1% to 5.3%2.6%-3.6%-3.4%

Highlights

Commercial aircraft orders continue to skew monthly readings on the factory sector where conditions on net appear to be stable with swelling backlogs a key positive for the outlook.

November's split between the report's two main components shows no change for nondurable goods -- the new data in today's report and where details are yet to be published -- and a 5.4 percent jump for durable orders which is unrevised from last week's advance reading.

Unfilled orders extended their climb in November, rising 1.3 percent for the second time in three months sandwiched between a 0.4 percent rise in October. The year-over-year build is nearly in the double digits, at 8.9 percent.

This build is tied directly to commercial aircraft (nondefense aircraft and parts) where monthly gains the last three reports are 3.0 percent, 0.8 percent, and 3.2 percent. On the year, orders here are up 20.4 percent.

Another positive, at least for the November data, is a 0.8 percent jump in core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) which is unrevised from the advance release. Yet gains for this key indication of business investment have been uneven; the annual growth rate is only 1.7 percent which, nevertheless, compares favorably with a 0.7 percent rise for total factory orders.

Other readings include a 0.5 percent rise for total shipments but only a 0.1 percent build for total inventories.

Today's report beat expectations and helped lift Econoday's Relative Performance Index to a very healthy plus 30 to indicate that recent US economic data on net are coming in noticeably above Econoday's consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Factory orders are expected to rebound 2.0 percent in November versus October's 3.6 percent decline that reflected a downswing in commercial aircraft. Durable goods orders for November, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, surged by 5.4 percent on the month after a revised 5.1 percent drop in October.

Definition

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.

Description

Investors want to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth which is less likely to cause inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data like factory orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production. All in all, this report tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.
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