ActualPreviousRevised
General Activity Index-27.4-9.3-10.4
Production Index-15.41.41.2

Highlights

The Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey showed the contraction in business activity deepened in January with the general activity index falling to minus 27.4 from a revised minus 10.4 in December.

Details in the Dallas report included new orders at minus 12.5 versus minus 10.1 in December. Production came in at minus 15.4 in January versus 1.2 in December. Shipments registered minus 16.6 versus minus 5.3 in December.

Employment came in at minus 9.7 versus minus 2.8 in December. Hours worked registered minus 11.8 versus minus 0.2 in December.

Prices paid for raw materials were 20.2 in January versus 17.8 in December. Prices received registered 0.1 in January versus 6.1 in December.

On the six-month outlook, general business conditions registered minus 10.4 in January versus minus 9.3 in December. The six-month outlook for new orders was 20.9 in January versus 14.2 in December.

Definition

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey tracks factory activity in Texas on a monthly basis. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Responses are aggregated into balance indexes where positive values generally indicate growth while negative values generally indicate contraction. About 100 manufacturers regularly participate in the survey.

Description

Investors track economic data like the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey to understand the economic backdrop for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that will not generate inflationary pressures. The Dallas Survey gives a detailed look at Texas' manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where it is headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report can have a big influence on the markets. Some of the survey indexes also provide insight on inflation pressures -- including prices paid, prices received, wages & benefits, and capacity utilization. The Federal Reserve closely watches this report because when inflation signals are flashing, policymakers can reset the direction of interest rates. As a consequence, the bond market can be highly sensitive to this report. The equity market is also sensitive to this report because it is an early clue on the nation's manufacturing sector, reported in advance of the ISM manufacturing index and often in advance of the NAPM-Chicago index.
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