ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
20-City Adjusted - M/M0.4%0.4% to 0.5%0.1%0.6%
20-City Unadjusted - M/M-0.2%0.1%
20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y5.8%5.6% to 5.9%5.4%4.9%

Highlights

Case-Shiller's 20-city home price index edged only 0.1 percent higher in November, missing Econoday's consensus for 0.4 percent. Unadjusted, the index fell 0.2 percent for the first monthly decrease since January last year. Nevertheless, the annual unadjusted rate rose 5 tenths to 5.4 percent.

Detroit remained out in front at 8.2 percent yearly growth with San Diego right behind at 8.0 percent. Portland, at minus 0.7 percent, remained the only city in annual decline. Still, the spread between the first and last of the 20 cities is the narrowest since early 2021.

"The tight disparity speaks to a rising tide across the country, with less evidence of micro-markets bucking the trend," according to the report."The days of markets in the South rising double digits with markets in the Midwest remaining flat are over."

November's results came at a time when mortgage rates had peaked, at nearly 8 percent for Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate average. This rate has fallen over one percentage point since which the report says could support further annual gains in home prices.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate rising 0.4 percent in November which would mark a slowdown from October's as-expected 0.6 percent increase and September's 0.7 percent which was also as expected. Despite the slower monthly rate, the annual rate is expected to rise nearly a full percentage point to 5.8 percent.

Definition

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.

Description

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
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