The MBA mortgage applications index is 9.9 percent higher in the January 5 week. It is 2.0 percent lower than four weeks ago and 2.1 percent higher than a year earlier. The purchase index is 5.6 percent higher in the current week and 0.7 percent lower than four weeks ago and 6.8 percent lower than a year earlier. The refinancing index is 18.8 percent higher and is 4.6 percent lower than four weeks ago and 30.2 percent higher than a year earlier. In the January 5 week, refinancing accounted for 38.3 percent of mortgage applications compared to 36.3 percent in the prior week.

MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said,"Despite an uptick in mortgage rates to start 2024, applications increased after adjusting for the holiday. The increase in purchase and refinance applications for both conventional and government loans is promising to start the year but was likely due to some catch-up in activity after the holiday season and year-end rate declines. Mortgage rates and applications have been volatile in recent weeks and overall activity remains low."

The fixed-rate mortgage index is 10.6 percent higher in the January 5 week. It is 1.0 percent lower than four weeks ago and 4.1 percent higher than this week last year. The adjustable-rate mortgage index is 1.2 percent lower and is 16.3 percent lower than four weeks ago and 24.1 percent lower than a year ago. Consumers continue to prefer a fixed rate loan over an adjustable rate to lock in monthly housing costs and avoid the risk of a reset higher.

The contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.81 percent in the current week. This is 5 basis points higher than the prior week, 26 basis points lower than four weeks ago, and 39 basis points higher than a year earlier. The contract rate for a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage is 6.17 percent in the week. This is 46 basis points higher than the prior week, 30 basis points lower than four weeks ago, and 80 basis points higher than a year earlier. In the January 5 week, adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 5.4 percent of mortgage applications compared to 6.0 percent in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.

Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.