| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims - Level | 217.5K | 210K to 225K | 202K | 218K | 220K |
| Initial Claims - Change | -18K | 12K | 14K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 207.75K | 212.00K | 212.50K |
Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 18,000 to 202,000 in the week ended December 30, the lowest level since the October 14, 2023 week and below Econoday's consensus forecast of 217,500. The previous week was revised up by 2,000 to 220,000. The latest decline brought the four-week average down to 207,750 from 212,500, also the lowest level since mid-October.
The level of insured jobless claims was down 31,000 to 1.855 million in the December 23 week after 1.886 million in the prior week, lowering the insured rate of unemployment a tenth to 1.2 percent.
The level of insured jobless claims was down 31,000 to 1.855 million in the December 23 week after 1.886 million in the prior week, lowering the insured rate of unemployment a tenth to 1.2 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Jobless claims for the December 30 week are expected to come in at 217,500 versus 218,000 in the prior week.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Description
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
