| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI - Y/Y | 3.6% | 3.0% to 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% |
Highlights
Monthly CPI data show that headline inflation in Australia fell from 4.3 percent in November to 3.4 percent in December, a fall sharper than the consensus forecast for a decline to 3.6 percent. After rising in August and September, monthly headline inflation has now fallen for three consecutive months, resuming the downward trend seen earlier in 2023 and moving closer to the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2.0 percent to 3.0 percent. This monthly indicator measures the year-over-year change in the CPI index compared with the same month twelve months earlier.
The fall in headline inflation in December was largely driven by smaller increases in food prices and housing costs. Food prices rose 4.0 percent on the year in December after advancing 4.6 percent in November, while the year-over-year increase in housing costs fell from 6.6 percent to 5.2 percent. Fuel prices, however, grew at a faster pace, up 5.3 percent on the year after a previous increase of 2.3 percent.
Quarterly CPI data also released today also showed a fourth consecutive decline in headline inflation in the three months to December. This evidence of moderating price pressures will likely convince RBA officials to leave policy rates on hold at their meeting next week and has boosted market expectations for policy to be eased later in the year.
The fall in headline inflation in December was largely driven by smaller increases in food prices and housing costs. Food prices rose 4.0 percent on the year in December after advancing 4.6 percent in November, while the year-over-year increase in housing costs fell from 6.6 percent to 5.2 percent. Fuel prices, however, grew at a faster pace, up 5.3 percent on the year after a previous increase of 2.3 percent.
Quarterly CPI data also released today also showed a fourth consecutive decline in headline inflation in the three months to December. This evidence of moderating price pressures will likely convince RBA officials to leave policy rates on hold at their meeting next week and has boosted market expectations for policy to be eased later in the year.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer prices in December are expected to slow to 3.6 percent year-over-year versus a lower-than-expected 4.3 percent in November and against 4.9 percent in October.
Definition
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services. In Australia, the CPI measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services, acquired by household consumers who are residents in the eight State/Territory capital cities. (Darwin, Perth, Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide).
Data are released quarterly and, since 2022, monthly. Quarterly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same quarter twelve months previously. Monthly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same month twelve months previously.
Data are released quarterly and, since 2022, monthly. Quarterly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same quarter twelve months previously. Monthly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same month twelve months previously.
Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Australia, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index. It has an inflation target of 2 percent to 3 percent. The RBA also has two preferred core or analytical measures - the weighted and trimmed means. The trimmed mean is a method of averaging that removes a small percentage of the largest and smallest values before calculating the mean. After removing the specified observations, the trimmed mean is found using an arithmetic averaging formula. The weighted mean excludes certain items from the CPI basket (the exclusion approach). Typically, the excluded items are those that are volatile and/or display pronounced seasonal patterns, and those that are subject to administrative price setting.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index. It has an inflation target of 2 percent to 3 percent. The RBA also has two preferred core or analytical measures - the weighted and trimmed means. The trimmed mean is a method of averaging that removes a small percentage of the largest and smallest values before calculating the mean. After removing the specified observations, the trimmed mean is found using an arithmetic averaging formula. The weighted mean excludes certain items from the CPI basket (the exclusion approach). Typically, the excluded items are those that are volatile and/or display pronounced seasonal patterns, and those that are subject to administrative price setting.
