| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.0% | -0.1% to 0.2% | -0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Year over Year | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
Highlights
Retail sales were weaker than expected in November, when they contracted 0.2 percent on the month, while the consensus had anticipated flat sales. However, the advance indicator points to a 0.8 percent rebound in December.
The weak performance in November was amplified by a downward revision to October's monthly growth rate to 0.5 percent from a 0.7 percent. In addition, the 0.2 percent contraction was entirely due to lower volumes. Although the preliminary data point to a recovery in December, the Bank of Canada's fourth quarter Survey of Consumer Expectations released earlier this week suggests ongoing sluggishness in consumer spending as"more people are changing their spending habits" as they pay more attention to prices.
With today's report, Econoday's Relative Performance Index stands at minus 5, within a zone consistent with stable monetary policy.
In November, declines were concentrated in four of nine subsectors, led by a 1.4 percent decline in food and beverages. Building material and garden equipment and supplies edged down 0.1 percent, general merchandises fell 1.8 percent, and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers were down 0.3 percent.
Among categories recording higher sales, motor vehicles and parts rose 0.5 percent, without which sales would have been down an even bigger 0.5 percent on the month. When also excluding the 0.3 percent gain in gasoline and fuel, core sales fell 0.6 percent from October. Clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers recorded the largest sales increase (1.5 percent).
Regionally, sales contracted in five provinces, with Quebec down 1.4 percent, the largest drop of all provinces.
The weak performance in November was amplified by a downward revision to October's monthly growth rate to 0.5 percent from a 0.7 percent. In addition, the 0.2 percent contraction was entirely due to lower volumes. Although the preliminary data point to a recovery in December, the Bank of Canada's fourth quarter Survey of Consumer Expectations released earlier this week suggests ongoing sluggishness in consumer spending as"more people are changing their spending habits" as they pay more attention to prices.
With today's report, Econoday's Relative Performance Index stands at minus 5, within a zone consistent with stable monetary policy.
In November, declines were concentrated in four of nine subsectors, led by a 1.4 percent decline in food and beverages. Building material and garden equipment and supplies edged down 0.1 percent, general merchandises fell 1.8 percent, and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers were down 0.3 percent.
Among categories recording higher sales, motor vehicles and parts rose 0.5 percent, without which sales would have been down an even bigger 0.5 percent on the month. When also excluding the 0.3 percent gain in gasoline and fuel, core sales fell 0.6 percent from October. Clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers recorded the largest sales increase (1.5 percent).
Regionally, sales contracted in five provinces, with Quebec down 1.4 percent, the largest drop of all provinces.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Retail sales in November are expected to come in unchanged following a 0.7 percent rise in October.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are reported in cash terms and disaggregated into eleven main subsectors. Aggregate volume figures are also provided.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Data are available both for total retail sales and those excluding autos and for 16 different store specializations. Since autos account for over 25 percent of retail sales, the sector can have a pronounced impact on overall sales given their volatility. Retail sales are used to estimate the goods portion of personal consumer expenditures in the quarterly GDP accounts, accounting for about 50 percent of the total.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
