Highlights
The UK jobless data continue to be of questionable reliability. The labour market report is expected to show the ILO unemployment rate is steady at 4.2 percent for the three months to October while the claimant count is expected to rise 20,300. Average earnings growth for the three-month period is seen easing but only slightly to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent and 8.2 percent in the two prior reports.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show sentiment is mixed. The current conditions index is expected to rise in December to minus 76.0 versus November's minus 79.8, which was nearly 3 points lower than expected. The expectations (economic sentiment) index is forecast at 9.2 versus November's 9.8 which, by contrast once again with current conditions, was nearly 7 points higher than expected.
In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee will hold a two-day policy meeting. It is expected to leave the policy interest rate unchanged.
The small business optimism index compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is expected to be little changed at 90.9 in November versus 90.7 in October. The index has been below the historical average of 98 for 22 months in a row amid high energy and labor costs.
The CPI data for November is forecast to show consumer inflation will ease slightly to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent in October while the core measure (excluding food and energy) will be unchanged at 4.0 percent. On the month, the total CPI is seen flat for a second straight month and the core rate is expected to gain 0.3 percent, up from a 0.2 percent rise in October.
In India, the CPI annual rate is forecast to rise to 5.70 percent in November from 4.87 percent in October, when it eased from 5.02 percent in September. The year-over-year increase in industrial output is seen rising to 10.0 percent from 5.8 percent.
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business survey is forecast to show confidence among major manufacturers in Japan edged up in December on improved supply chains, a bottoming chip market and easing import costs after a sharp improvement in September, but they are expected to remain cautious about their near-term outlook amid slowing global growth and widespread domestic labor shortages. The Tankan diffusion index showing sentiment among major manufacturers likely posted its third straight quarterly increase in December, although rising only slightly to 10 after jumping to 9 in September from 5 in June.
The index measuring sentiment among major non-manufacturers is forecast at 27 in December, unchanged from September, when it improved for the sixth consecutive quarter to a 32-year high (the best reading since 33 in December 1991). Restaurants, hotels, retail stores and some other service providers continued benefiting from widely eased Covid public health restrictions, which have supported traveling and eating out as well as spending by foreign visitors, which has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Major firms are expected to project their plans for business investment in equipment will rise a combined 12.7 percent on the year in fiscal 2023 ending in March 2024, revised down from the 13.6 percent increase planned in the September survey but still higher than a modest 3.2 percent planned in March. By contrast, smaller firms are expected to revise up their combined capital spending plans further to a 9.8 percent rise in fiscal 2023 after jacking them up to an 8.0 percent rise in September from a 2.4 percent increase planned in June and an unusually bullish 1.4 percent rise projected in March.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show sentiment is mixed. The current conditions index is expected to rise in December to minus 76.0 versus November's minus 79.8, which was nearly 3 points lower than expected. The expectations (economic sentiment) index is forecast at 9.2 versus November's 9.8 which, by contrast once again with current conditions, was nearly 7 points higher than expected.
In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee will hold a two-day policy meeting. It is expected to leave the policy interest rate unchanged.
The small business optimism index compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is expected to be little changed at 90.9 in November versus 90.7 in October. The index has been below the historical average of 98 for 22 months in a row amid high energy and labor costs.
The CPI data for November is forecast to show consumer inflation will ease slightly to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent in October while the core measure (excluding food and energy) will be unchanged at 4.0 percent. On the month, the total CPI is seen flat for a second straight month and the core rate is expected to gain 0.3 percent, up from a 0.2 percent rise in October.
In India, the CPI annual rate is forecast to rise to 5.70 percent in November from 4.87 percent in October, when it eased from 5.02 percent in September. The year-over-year increase in industrial output is seen rising to 10.0 percent from 5.8 percent.
The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business survey is forecast to show confidence among major manufacturers in Japan edged up in December on improved supply chains, a bottoming chip market and easing import costs after a sharp improvement in September, but they are expected to remain cautious about their near-term outlook amid slowing global growth and widespread domestic labor shortages. The Tankan diffusion index showing sentiment among major manufacturers likely posted its third straight quarterly increase in December, although rising only slightly to 10 after jumping to 9 in September from 5 in June.
The index measuring sentiment among major non-manufacturers is forecast at 27 in December, unchanged from September, when it improved for the sixth consecutive quarter to a 32-year high (the best reading since 33 in December 1991). Restaurants, hotels, retail stores and some other service providers continued benefiting from widely eased Covid public health restrictions, which have supported traveling and eating out as well as spending by foreign visitors, which has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Major firms are expected to project their plans for business investment in equipment will rise a combined 12.7 percent on the year in fiscal 2023 ending in March 2024, revised down from the 13.6 percent increase planned in the September survey but still higher than a modest 3.2 percent planned in March. By contrast, smaller firms are expected to revise up their combined capital spending plans further to a 9.8 percent rise in fiscal 2023 after jacking them up to an 8.0 percent rise in September from a 2.4 percent increase planned in June and an unusually bullish 1.4 percent rise projected in March.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
