The Nationwide index again beat expectations in November. A 0.2 percent monthly gain easily exceeded the market consensus and, following October's unrevised 0.9 percent jump, means prices have now risen for three straight months for the first time since July-August last year. Annual inflation remains negative at minus 2.0 percent but this still represents a 9-month high. Indeed, the quarterly change in prices now stands at 0.1 percent, its first positive print since October 2022.

Hopes that the BoE tightening cycle is over may have helped market activity last month and the labour market is still firm. Nonetheless, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall quickly and consumer confidence is weak. Accordingly, prices are likely to be subject to some downside pressure over coming months and, in any event, a major rebound seems improbable.

More generally, the Nationwide update puts the UK RPI at minus 3 and the RPI-P at 2. Both readings are close enough to zero to show overall economic activity performing much as anticipated.

Prices are expected to drop 0.4 percent on the month after a 0.9 percent rise previously.

The Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) provides house price information derived from Nationwide lending data for properties at the post survey approval stage. Nationwide house prices are mix adjusted; that is, they track a representative house price over time rather than the simple average price.

Home values affect much in the economy especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumers' ability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.

Although the Nationwide data are calculated similar to the Halifax method Nationwide substantially updated their system in 1993 following the publication of the 1991 census data. These improvements mean that Nationwide's system is more robust to lower sample sizes because it better identifies and tracks representative house prices. Historically, the data go back to 1952 on a quarterly basis and 1991 on a monthly basis.

Over long periods the Halifax and Nationwide series of house prices tend to follow similar patterns. This stems from both Nationwide and Halifax using similar statistical techniques to produce their prices. Nationwide's average price differs because the representative property tracked is different in make up to that of Halifax.