ConsensusActualPrevious
Index9810099

Highlights

Sentiment in French manufacturing picked up modestly in December, making for a mixed picture of activity in the final month of the year. The business climate indicator rose by one point to 100, above the consensus forecast and its first increase since September. The gain put the index at its long-term average.

Elsewhere, overall sentiment rose one point to 98, an improvement in retail trade (100 after 96) accounting for much of the rise. Services also edged a notch higher to 100 while construction was flat at 102.

The data take the French RPI to minus 8 and the RPI-P to 5.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sentiment is expected to edge a notch lower to 98 at year-end.

Definition

INSEE is France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. INSEE's business climate indicator aims to summarise the mood of French business leaders. The survey asks questions about output, orders and inventories and expectations for future business. These are synthesised into an overall index of sentiment, adjusted so that the long-run average is 100. The main focus is the manufacturing sector but the survey also provides separate confidence measures for construction, retail trade and services on a monthly basis and for wholesale trade every other month.

Description

If you are looking for clues on French business sentiment, this survey would be a good starting point. The indicator is based on a survey that asks business leaders about their expectations for new orders and their overall impressions of the economy. The results are a diffusion index that reflects the difference between positive and negative responses as a percentage of the total number of answers.
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