ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index44.544.644.6
Services Index45.345.445.2

Highlights

French private sector activity remained notably weak last month, according to revised purchasing management data, suggesting the economic stagnation may extend through the final quarter.

The composite index steadied at 44.6, unchanged from the October reading, a slight improvement on the consensus (and flash) estimate of 44.5.

Service sector activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month, even though the PMI index increased slightly to 45.4 from 45.2 in October. The November reading came slightly above the consensus estimate of 45.3.

New business receipts in the service sector declined by the quickest pace in three years, with 12-month growth expectations also lower. Employment growth slowed, but firms reported a modest degree of job creation.

However, wage growth remained a concern for many businesses, which, coupled with higher suppliers' fees, resulted int still-substantial cost pressures according to S&P Global, which compiles the data.

With the PMI data remaining stubbornly under the break-even level of 50, the French economy could be heading toward a contraction in the fourth quarter, after gross domestic product retreated by 0.1 percent in the June quarter.

The latest numbers will only reinforce the market belief that the next move in Eurozone rates will be down with an initial reduction coming as soon as the middle of next year.

The PMI data take the French RPI to minus 19 and the RPI-P to minus six, meaning that the is underperforming market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected leaving the key composite output index at 44.5, little changed from from Octobers's 44.6.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 750 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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