ActualPreviousConsensus
CPI - M/M-0.2%0.2%
CPI - Y/Y3.6%4.7%3.9%
Core CPI - M/M0.1%0.4%
Core CPI - Y/Y3.2%3.3%

Highlights

Singapore's headline consumer price index rose 3.6 percent on the year in November, slowing from 4.7 percent in October. This is the lowest inflation rate since October 2021. The index fell 0.2 percent on the month after advancing 0.2 percent previously. The Monetary Authority of Singapore's preferred measure of core inflation, which excludes the cost of accommodation and private road transport, fell from 3.3 percent in October to 3.2 percent in November. This index advanced 0.1 percent on the month after increasing 0.4 percent previously.

The moderation in core inflation in November was broad-based across major categories. Electricity and gas prices rose 1.5 percent on the year after a previous increase of 1.8 percent, with the year-over-year increase in retail and other goods prices also slowing from 1.6 percent to 1.0 percent. The big decline in headline inflation was driven by a substantially smaller increase in private transport costs, up 4.2 percent on the year after increasing 11.7 percent previously. Food price inflation also eased slightly.

At their semi-annual policy review in October, MAS officials left policy settings unchanged by continuing to target the prevailing rate of appreciation in the exchange rate. Officials today again highlighted both upside and downside risks to the outlook for core inflation and noted that it will be impacted by an impending increase in the goods and services tax rate. Nevertheless, they expressed confidence that underlying price pressures will"resume a broadly moderating trend over the course of 2024".

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consumer prices in November, which in October rose from 4.1 to 4.7 percent on rising transport costs, are expected to slow back to 3.9 percent.

Definition

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average price changes in a fixed basket of consumption goods and services commonly purchased by the resident households over time. It is commonly used as a measure of consumer price inflation.

The CPI is rebased once every five years to reflect the latest consumption patterns and composition of goods and services consumed by resident households. The weighting pattern for the 2014-based CPI was derived from the expenditure values collected in the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) which was conducted from October 2012 to September 2013. These expenditure values were updated to 2014 values by taking into account price changes between 2012/13 and 2014.

The CPI covers only consumption expenditure incurred by resident households. It excludes non-consumption expenditures such as loan repayments, income taxes, purchases of houses, shares, and other financial assets etc.

Description

An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets and your investments.

Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from mortgages and auto loans to government securities. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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