The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee has left the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 6.50 percent at its policy review held today, in line with the consensus forecast. This rate has now been on hold since February after it was earlier increased by a cumulative 250 basis points beginning in May 2022.

Data released since the RBI's previous meeting early October have shown headline CPI inflation falling from 6.83 percent in August to 5.02 percent in September and 4.87 percent in October. This moderation in price pressures over the last two months largely reflects smaller increases in food prices and takes headline inflation back within the RBI's target range of 2.0 percent to 6.0 percent. Recent activity data, meanwhile, have generally shown ongoing strength in economic conditions.

In the statement accompanying today's decision, RBI officials advised that they expect headline inflation will remain volatile in the near-term, reflecting base effects and uncertainty about the impact of weather conditions on food prices. They noted, however, that core inflation has been steady and expect inflation to trend lower in coming quarters.

Officials again characterised the domestic economy as resilient, even as the impact of previous policy tightening continues to be felt, and they again described the risks to the growth outlook as evenly balanced. They revised up their forecast for GDP growth in the current fiscal year from 6.5 percent to 7.0 percent, with consumer spending expected to strengthen and weakness in external demand expected to moderate.

Today's decision to leave rates on hold again indicates that officials remain confident that policy tightening implemented previously will return headline inflation to its target range in due course. They stressed, however, that"monetary policy must continue to be actively disinflationary", suggesting that upside risks to the inflation outlook will likely remain their primary focus in upcoming meetings.

Despite high inflation and robust economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India has left policy unchanged at their last four meetings. Expectations for December are for no change.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) issues six Bi-monthly Policy Statements a year. During these announcements the RBI will signal any shifts in its monetary stance, particularly with reference to the benchmark repo interest rate and its cash reserve ratio (CRR). The Governor will also update the Bank's view of recent economic developments and provide new forecasts for inflation and growth. A 4 percent inflation target with a +/- 2 percentage point tolerance band was formally implemented in August 2016 and will be overseen by a new six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Although the RBI monitors many economic indicators - as indeed all central banks do - the RBI most closely monitors inflation. The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity while lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, fewer homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or for those who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.

The Reserve Bank of India was established on April 1, 1935 in accordance with the provisions of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. The Central Office of the Reserve Bank was initially established in Calcutta but was permanently moved to Mumbai in 1937. The Central Office is where the Governor sits and where policies are formulated. Though originally privately owned, since nationalization in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India. The Reserve Bank's affairs are governed by a central board of directors. The board is appointed by the Government of India in keeping with the Reserve Bank of India Act.

The Reserve Bank of India performs this function under the guidance of the Board for Financial Supervision (BFS). The Board was constituted in November 1994 as a committee of the Central Board of Directors of the Reserve Bank of India. Primary objective of BFS is to undertake consolidated supervision of the financial sector comprising commercial banks, financial institutions and non-banking finance companies. Its function is to advise the Central Board on local matters and to represent territorial and economic interests of local cooperative and indigenous banks; to perform such other functions as delegated by Central Board from time to time. Primary objective of BFS is to undertake consolidated supervision of the financial sector comprising commercial banks, financial institutions and non-banking finance companies. The Board is required to meet normally once every month. It considers inspection reports and other supervisory issues placed before it by the supervisory departments.