| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.5% | 2.4% to 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Highlights
Japanese payrolls surged on year in November for a 16th straight increase, led by a sharp rebound in manufacturing and medical service jobs and a continued hiring spree by hotels, restaurants and communications firms amid widespread labor shortages while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.5 percent after improving for the second month in a row in October, data released Tuesday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired jumped, marking the first rise in fourth months, but it was offset by a drop in the number of those who quit to look for other openings and the unchanged number of those who began looking for work. The number of employed women surged in November after a slump in October.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at plus 24, above zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing better than expected. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at plus 30.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at 2.5 percent in November, unchanged from October, when it fell from 2.6 percent September and 2.7 percent in August. It was in line with the median economist forecast of 2.5 percent (forecasts ranged from 2.4 percent to 2.6 percent).
The latest figure is below 2.8 percent seen in March but is still above the three-year low of 2.4 percent hit in January. It remains below the recent high of 3.1 percent reached in October 2020 but is above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global economic slump.
The jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
In its monthly economic report for December released last week, the government maintained its overall assessment after downgrading it in November for the first time in 10 months in light of sluggish capital investment, saying the economy is still recovering moderately but that the pickup in some areas is pausing. It kept its view on employment conditions after upgrading it for the first time in 11 months in June, saying they are"showing signs of improvement."
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed soared 560,000 to an unadjusted 67.80 million in November for the 16th straight increase, led by women and both regular and non-regular jobs. It followed increases of 160,000 in October, 210,000 in September, 220,000 in August, 170,000 in July, 260,000 in June, 150,000 in May, 140,000 in April, 150,000 in March and 90,000 in February and a 430,000 surge in January.
The number of unemployed rose 40,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.69 million in November for the first rise in three months, after falling 30,000 to a nine-month low of 1.67 million in October, slipping 50,000 in September, rising 90,000 in August and climbing 70,000 in July for the first rise in three months. It marked its first year-over-year rise in 21 months in March with a 130,000 jump. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 but is still above the 1.65 million level seen at the beginning of 2020.
The overall employment increase in November from a year earlier was led by a sharp rebound in both manufacturing and medical/welfare services jobs. The hotels, restaurants and bars category continued to increase payrolls as people have been traveling and eating out more freely since the government widely lifted Covid restrictions in May. Information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers hired more people for the second straight month.
The construction industry shed workers on year for the second month in a row after hiring actively in recent months. Financial firms trimmed payrolls from year-earlier levels for the sixth consecutive month in November.
Employment in the wholesale and retail industry marked the first year-over-year decline in seven months after rising at a slower pace and posting sharp gains in August and July. The real-estate and goods leasing category posted a slight gain for the second month in a row after recent drops.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired jumped, marking the first rise in fourth months, but it was offset by a drop in the number of those who quit to look for other openings and the unchanged number of those who began looking for work. The number of employed women surged in November after a slump in October.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at plus 24, above zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing better than expected. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at plus 30.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at 2.5 percent in November, unchanged from October, when it fell from 2.6 percent September and 2.7 percent in August. It was in line with the median economist forecast of 2.5 percent (forecasts ranged from 2.4 percent to 2.6 percent).
The latest figure is below 2.8 percent seen in March but is still above the three-year low of 2.4 percent hit in January. It remains below the recent high of 3.1 percent reached in October 2020 but is above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global economic slump.
The jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
In its monthly economic report for December released last week, the government maintained its overall assessment after downgrading it in November for the first time in 10 months in light of sluggish capital investment, saying the economy is still recovering moderately but that the pickup in some areas is pausing. It kept its view on employment conditions after upgrading it for the first time in 11 months in June, saying they are"showing signs of improvement."
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed soared 560,000 to an unadjusted 67.80 million in November for the 16th straight increase, led by women and both regular and non-regular jobs. It followed increases of 160,000 in October, 210,000 in September, 220,000 in August, 170,000 in July, 260,000 in June, 150,000 in May, 140,000 in April, 150,000 in March and 90,000 in February and a 430,000 surge in January.
The number of unemployed rose 40,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.69 million in November for the first rise in three months, after falling 30,000 to a nine-month low of 1.67 million in October, slipping 50,000 in September, rising 90,000 in August and climbing 70,000 in July for the first rise in three months. It marked its first year-over-year rise in 21 months in March with a 130,000 jump. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 but is still above the 1.65 million level seen at the beginning of 2020.
The overall employment increase in November from a year earlier was led by a sharp rebound in both manufacturing and medical/welfare services jobs. The hotels, restaurants and bars category continued to increase payrolls as people have been traveling and eating out more freely since the government widely lifted Covid restrictions in May. Information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers hired more people for the second straight month.
The construction industry shed workers on year for the second month in a row after hiring actively in recent months. Financial firms trimmed payrolls from year-earlier levels for the sixth consecutive month in November.
Employment in the wholesale and retail industry marked the first year-over-year decline in seven months after rising at a slower pace and posting sharp gains in August and July. The real-estate and goods leasing category posted a slight gain for the second month in a row after recent drops.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 16th straight rise on year in November as hospitals, hotels, restaurants and construction firms continued seeking workers amid widespread labor shortages while the unemployment rate is forecast at 2.5 percent, unchanged from October, when it fell from 2.6 percent in September for the second straight monthly improvement. The number of people who began looking for work plunged on the month in October as some of those who had joined the labor market, unemployed, in September appeared to have found a job.
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
