| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | ¥-1,024.0B | ¥-1,464.9B to ¥-914.5B | ¥-776.9B | ¥-662.5B | ¥-660.97B |
| Imports - Y/Y | -7.5% | -9.1% to -0.1% | -11.9% | -12.5% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | 1.9% | -0.3% to 6.5% | -0.2% | 1.6% |
Highlights
Key points from trade statistics:
--Japan November exports post 1st y/y dip in 3 months on softer demand for iron/steel, chip-making equipment but autos remain up
--Imports mark 8th straight y/y fall on easing energy import costs
--Exports to China show 12th straight y/y drop on chips, food; pace of decline slows
--Exports to US post 26th straight y/y rise; those to EU dip for 1st time in 33 months
Japanese export values came in weaker than expected, posting their first year-over-year slip in three months, down 0.2 percent, after a modest 1.6 percent gain in October, reflecting softer demand for iron and steel as well as chip-making equipment, but solid shipments of automobiles and semiconductors partly offset the decline, data released Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance showed.
Import values fell on the year for the 8th straight month, down 11.9 percent, as energy prices remain well below last year's levels, but the pace of decrease decelerated further.
The trade deficit was smaller than expected but still widened to ¥776.9 billion from a revised ¥660.97 billion in October while narrowing from a large ¥2.06 trillion deficit recorded a year earlier.
Shipments to China, one of the key export markets for Japanese goods, posted their 12th straight year-over-year decline in November amid slow recovery in the world's second largest economy, but the pace of decrease continued to decelerate.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at plus 20, above zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing better than expected after outperforming with a narrower margin recently. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at plus 40.
Export values fell 0.2 percent on the year in November after rising 1.6 percent to ¥9.15 trillion in October, the second highest on record, and climbing 4.3 percent to a record high of ¥9.20 trillion in September. Previously, exports fell 0.8 percent in August and edged down 0.3 percent in July, which was the first drop in 29 months. Exports have slowed from double-digit percentage gains seen last year. The latest figure was much weaker than the median forecast of a 1.9 percent rise (forecasts ranged from a 0.3 percent drop to a 6.5 percent gain). The decrease was led by a continued drop in semiconductor-producing equipment as well as declines in iron and steel and ships. Exports of automobiles and semiconductors posted solid gains.
Export volumes fell 5.6 percent on the year in November after falling 3.3 percent in October and rising 0.7 percent in September, which was the first rise in 12 months.
Import values fell 11.9 percent on the year in November for the eighth straight decrease after falling 12.5 percent in October, 16.5 percent in September and 17.6 percent in August and marking their first decline in 27 months with a 2.7 percent drop in April. It was larger than the median forecast of a 7.5 percent fall (forecasts ranged from 9.1 percent to 0.1 percent drops). The decrease was led by coal, liquefied natural gas and crude oil as the prices for energy remain below year-earlier levels.
Import volumes dipped 3.5 percent on year in October for the 13th straight decrease after sliding 3.2 percent in October and 2.6 percent in September.
The trade balance came to a deficit of ¥776.9 billion in November after posting a revised deficit of ¥660.97 billion in October and a surplus of ¥65.4 billion in September. It compared with the consensus forecast of a deficit of ¥1.02 trillion (forecasts ranged from ¥1.46 trillion to ¥914.5 billion deficits) and a record high deficit of ¥3.51 trillion hit in January and a large ¥2.06 trillion deficit seen a year earlier. The ¥39.2 billion surplus in June was the first positive figure in 23 months.
Exports to China, one of the top export destinations for Japanese goods, fell 2.2 percent on the year in November for the 12th straight decline. It followed decreases of 4.0 percent in October, 6.2 percent in September and 11.0 percent in August and their first drop in seven months in December 2022 with a 6.2 percent drop. The decline was led by lower shipments of semiconductors, food and organic compounds. Exports of semiconductor-producing equipment continued rising and those of autos and mineral fuels were also up. The recent trend is in stark contrast to the middle of last year, when shipments to China rose 12.8 percent to a record high ¥1.78 trillion in July 2022.
Japanese exports to Asia as a whole slipped 4.1 percent in November for the 11th straight drop, following a 5.3 drop in October and their first year-on-year drop in 23 months in January, down 4.0 percent. The decline was led by iron and steel and ships but exports of semiconductors and autos recorded gains.
Exports to the U.S., which have exceeded those to China since October 2022, recorded their 26th straight year-on-year rise, up 5.3 percent in November, following an 8.5 percent rise in October, a 13.0 percent increase in September and a 36.5 percent surge to a record high of ¥1.78 trillion in October 2022. The increase was led by automobiles and auto parts, as seen in recent months, as well as aircraft. Exports of metal processing machinery, construction/mining equipment and semiconductor-producing equipment declined.
Shipments to the European Union posted their first year-on-year drop in 33 months, down by a slight 0.03 percent in November, following an 8.9 percent rise in October and a 12.9 percent gain in September. The decrease reflects lower demand for iron and steel, heating and cooling equipment as well as motorcycles, which was nearly offset by solid demand for automobiles, ships and drugs.
--Japan November exports post 1st y/y dip in 3 months on softer demand for iron/steel, chip-making equipment but autos remain up
--Imports mark 8th straight y/y fall on easing energy import costs
--Exports to China show 12th straight y/y drop on chips, food; pace of decline slows
--Exports to US post 26th straight y/y rise; those to EU dip for 1st time in 33 months
Japanese export values came in weaker than expected, posting their first year-over-year slip in three months, down 0.2 percent, after a modest 1.6 percent gain in October, reflecting softer demand for iron and steel as well as chip-making equipment, but solid shipments of automobiles and semiconductors partly offset the decline, data released Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance showed.
Import values fell on the year for the 8th straight month, down 11.9 percent, as energy prices remain well below last year's levels, but the pace of decrease decelerated further.
The trade deficit was smaller than expected but still widened to ¥776.9 billion from a revised ¥660.97 billion in October while narrowing from a large ¥2.06 trillion deficit recorded a year earlier.
Shipments to China, one of the key export markets for Japanese goods, posted their 12th straight year-over-year decline in November amid slow recovery in the world's second largest economy, but the pace of decrease continued to decelerate.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at plus 20, above zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing better than expected after outperforming with a narrower margin recently. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at plus 40.
Export values fell 0.2 percent on the year in November after rising 1.6 percent to ¥9.15 trillion in October, the second highest on record, and climbing 4.3 percent to a record high of ¥9.20 trillion in September. Previously, exports fell 0.8 percent in August and edged down 0.3 percent in July, which was the first drop in 29 months. Exports have slowed from double-digit percentage gains seen last year. The latest figure was much weaker than the median forecast of a 1.9 percent rise (forecasts ranged from a 0.3 percent drop to a 6.5 percent gain). The decrease was led by a continued drop in semiconductor-producing equipment as well as declines in iron and steel and ships. Exports of automobiles and semiconductors posted solid gains.
Export volumes fell 5.6 percent on the year in November after falling 3.3 percent in October and rising 0.7 percent in September, which was the first rise in 12 months.
Import values fell 11.9 percent on the year in November for the eighth straight decrease after falling 12.5 percent in October, 16.5 percent in September and 17.6 percent in August and marking their first decline in 27 months with a 2.7 percent drop in April. It was larger than the median forecast of a 7.5 percent fall (forecasts ranged from 9.1 percent to 0.1 percent drops). The decrease was led by coal, liquefied natural gas and crude oil as the prices for energy remain below year-earlier levels.
Import volumes dipped 3.5 percent on year in October for the 13th straight decrease after sliding 3.2 percent in October and 2.6 percent in September.
The trade balance came to a deficit of ¥776.9 billion in November after posting a revised deficit of ¥660.97 billion in October and a surplus of ¥65.4 billion in September. It compared with the consensus forecast of a deficit of ¥1.02 trillion (forecasts ranged from ¥1.46 trillion to ¥914.5 billion deficits) and a record high deficit of ¥3.51 trillion hit in January and a large ¥2.06 trillion deficit seen a year earlier. The ¥39.2 billion surplus in June was the first positive figure in 23 months.
Exports to China, one of the top export destinations for Japanese goods, fell 2.2 percent on the year in November for the 12th straight decline. It followed decreases of 4.0 percent in October, 6.2 percent in September and 11.0 percent in August and their first drop in seven months in December 2022 with a 6.2 percent drop. The decline was led by lower shipments of semiconductors, food and organic compounds. Exports of semiconductor-producing equipment continued rising and those of autos and mineral fuels were also up. The recent trend is in stark contrast to the middle of last year, when shipments to China rose 12.8 percent to a record high ¥1.78 trillion in July 2022.
Japanese exports to Asia as a whole slipped 4.1 percent in November for the 11th straight drop, following a 5.3 drop in October and their first year-on-year drop in 23 months in January, down 4.0 percent. The decline was led by iron and steel and ships but exports of semiconductors and autos recorded gains.
Exports to the U.S., which have exceeded those to China since October 2022, recorded their 26th straight year-on-year rise, up 5.3 percent in November, following an 8.5 percent rise in October, a 13.0 percent increase in September and a 36.5 percent surge to a record high of ¥1.78 trillion in October 2022. The increase was led by automobiles and auto parts, as seen in recent months, as well as aircraft. Exports of metal processing machinery, construction/mining equipment and semiconductor-producing equipment declined.
Shipments to the European Union posted their first year-on-year drop in 33 months, down by a slight 0.03 percent in November, following an 8.9 percent rise in October and a 12.9 percent gain in September. The decrease reflects lower demand for iron and steel, heating and cooling equipment as well as motorcycles, which was nearly offset by solid demand for automobiles, ships and drugs.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese export values are forecast to post their third straight year-over-year rise in November, up 1.9 percent, after rising 1.6 percent in October and climbing 4.3 percent to a record high in September. Demand for automobiles from the US and Europe remains strong while that for semiconductor-producing equipment has been sluggish and orders from China have been weak. Import values are expected to have fallen on the year for the 8th straight month, down 7.5 percent, with the pace of decrease slowing from double-digit percentage drops in the previous six months. Global energy prices have eased from last year's spike. The trade deficit is forecast to have widen to ¥1,024.0 billion (¥1.02 trillion) from a revised ¥660.97 billion in October. That would be still narrower than a ¥2.06 trillion deficit seen a year earlier.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.
