Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
Year over Year | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
Highlights
Weaker quarter-over-quarter headline growth reflects mixed results across key expenditure categories. Consumer spending was flat on the quarter in the three months to September, weakening from an increase of 0.2 percent in the three months to June. Net trade made a negative contribution to headline GDP growth of 0.6 percentage points after a positive contribution of 0.8 percentage points previously. Private investment, however, recorded stronger growth, increasing 1.2 percent after advancing 0.6 percent previously, with growth in government spending also picking up from 0.6 percent to 1.1 percent.
Today's data cover the period in which officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy rates on hold after increasing them aggressively over the previous twelve months. At their latest meeting, held earlier this week, officials left rates on hold again after increasing them in November. Today's data showing weaker growth suggests that previous policy tightening has contributed to slower demand and likely boosts the chances that officials will leave rates on hold again at their next meeting in February.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.