Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Change | 0bp | 0bp | 25bp |
Level | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% |
Highlights
In the statement accompanying today's decision, officials note that the limited information they have received since tightening policy further last month indicates that"inflation is continuing to moderate". The most recent monthly CPI data showed a fall in headline inflation from 5.6 percent in September to 4.9 percent in October, with measures of underlying inflation also falling. Officials still expect this downward trend to continue over 2024 but again highlighted upside risks to the inflation outlook in today's statement.
Officials also acknowledged risks to the growth outlook, with the outlook for consumer spending considered to be particularly uncertain given severe cost of living pressures and the impact of higher mortgage rates. They also noted, however, that conditions in the labour market remain strong.
After deciding last month that risks to the inflation outlook justified another rate hike, officials today concluded that"holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market". However, it is clear that returning inflation to its target range remains officials' top priority. Their statement concluded by reiterating that they"will do what is necessary" to achieve their objective, and they advised that further tightening may be required, depending on incoming data and their evolving assessment of risks. The RBA's next meeting is scheduled for early February.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The RBA is unique among the central banks - it has two boards with complementary responsibilities. The Reserve Bank Board is responsible for monetary policy and overall financial system stability. The Payments System Board has specific responsibility for the safety and efficiency of the payments system.
The RBA sets an interest rate at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.