ConsensusActualPrevious
Employment - M/M12,00024,90017,500
Unemployment Rate5.8%5.8%5.7%

Highlights

The Canadian economy added 24,900 jobs in November, more than the 12,000 consensus expectation in an Econoday survey. However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.8 percent from 5.7 percent, with the participation rate stable at 65.6 percent.

The average 12-month hourly wage growth remained steady at 4.8 percent, while total hours worked fell 0.7 percent on the month, for a 1.3 percent year-over-year increase.

The employment rate, currently at 61.8 percent, has been trending down since its high point of 62.5 percent at the beginning of the year.

In November, employment gains were led by full-time positions, which were up 59,600 while part-time decreased 34,700.

In the first increase since June, private-sector employment rose 37,700 in November, while the public sector was up 11,700. Self-employment increased 24,500.

Goods-producing industries created 38,300 positions, led by a 28,400 gain in manufacturing and a 16,200 advance in construction.

Services, by contrast, shed 13,400 jobs on the month. Wholesale and retail trade was down 26,900, and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing fell 18,400. On the upside, health care and social assistance recorded the largest increase (12,400).

Despite the stronger-than-expected headline number, Econoday's Relative Performance Index is within a zone consistent with limited tightening risk.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Employment in November is expected to rise 12,000 versus October's 17,500 which was just over expectations and followed September's 63,800 surge. November's unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.8 percent from 5.7% in October.

Definition

The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

Description

As in the U.S., this report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends and break-downs by industry groups highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.

The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.

The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.

The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
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