The Chicago Fed national activity index returns to a positive reading in November at 0.03 after a downward revision to minus 0.66 in October. However, the November index is below the consensus of 0.20 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The report noted that all four broad categories of the index saw an increase in November. Overall, the CFNAI points to improved conditions for the US economy, but only narrowly expansionary in November.

The CFNAI three-month moving average is little changed at minus 0.20 in November after minus 0.26 in October. The CFNAI diffusion index is higher at minus 0.21 I n November after minus 0.35 in October.

Among production indicators, the November contribution to the CFNAI is at neutral after minus 0.37 in October. This includes an increase in industrial production of 0.2 percent in November after a decline of 0.9 percent in October following the settlement of the UAW strike. Among indicators for sales, orders, and inventories, the CFNAI contribution is up to minus 0.03 in November after minus 0.11 in October. Employment related indicators made a contribution of 0.03 to the November CFNAI after minus 0.15 in October due to a two-tenths dip in the national unemployment rate to 3.7 percent. The contribution from personal consumption and housing turns positive at 0.04 in November from minus 0.03 in October.

The national activity index is expected to rise to plus 0.20 in November versus minus 0.49 in October.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.