ConsensusActualPrevious
Balance$51.0B$68.39B$56.53B
Imports - Y/Y4.0%-0.6%3.0%
Exports - Y/Y-2.7%0.5%-6.4%

Highlights

China's trade surplus in US dollar terms widened from $56.53 billion in October to $68.39 billion in November. Exports rose 0.5 percent on the year in November after dropping 6.4 percent in October, while imports weakened, falling 0.6 percent on the year after a previous increase of 3.0 percent.

The trade surplus reported today was well above the consensus forecast of US$51.0 billion, exports were stronger than expected, and imports were much weaker than expected. The China RPI and the RPI-P rose from plus 14 to plus 29 and from plus 17 to plus 29 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in above consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

China's trade surplus for November is expected to narrow to US$51.0 billion versus October's lower-than-expected US$56.53 billion that was pulled down a 6.4 percent fall in year-over-year exports together with a 3.0 percent rise in imports. Exports in November are expected to continue to fall, down a consensus 2.7 percent.

Definition

The Merchandise Trade Balance is the difference in value between imported and exported goods. Data are denominated both in U.S. dollars and renminbi. A positive number indicates a surplus meaning that more goods were exported than imported.

Description

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they also affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. However, the foreign exchange impact is muted here given that the currency is pegged to a basket of currencies and its value is determined daily by the government.

China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.

Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
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