| Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.06% | 0.07% | |
| Year over Year | 10.1% | 7.6% | 12.5% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 10.1 percent on the year in November after growth of 7.6 percent in October, falling short of the consensus forecast for an increase of 12.5 percent. Sales fell 0.06 percent on the month after advancing 0.07 percent previously.
Officials characterised today's data as evidence that"the national economy further consolidated its good momentum" and that conditions are"turning for the better". However, although industrial production and retail sales both recorded stronger year-over-year growth in November, weakness in the property market remains a major drag on the economy. PMI surveys published earlier in the month also showed ongoing subdued conditions in the Chinese economy. The comments from officials, however, suggest that they remain comfortable with current policy settings for now, in line with previous statements.
The monthly activity data published today showed industrial production was stronger than the consensus forecast, while retail sales were weaker and investment was in line with expectations. The China RPI and RPI-P are unchanged at plus 7 and plus 20 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Officials characterised today's data as evidence that"the national economy further consolidated its good momentum" and that conditions are"turning for the better". However, although industrial production and retail sales both recorded stronger year-over-year growth in November, weakness in the property market remains a major drag on the economy. PMI surveys published earlier in the month also showed ongoing subdued conditions in the Chinese economy. The comments from officials, however, suggest that they remain comfortable with current policy settings for now, in line with previous statements.
The monthly activity data published today showed industrial production was stronger than the consensus forecast, while retail sales were weaker and investment was in line with expectations. The China RPI and RPI-P are unchanged at plus 7 and plus 20 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After rising 7.6 percent in October versus expectations for 7.0 percent, year-over-year sales in November are expected to rise 12.5 percent.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
