ActualPreviousConsensus
Month over Month0.87%0.39%
Year over Year6.6%4.6%5.7%

Highlights

Chinese industrial production rose 6.6 percent on the year in November after an increase of 4.6 percent in October, well above the consensus forecast for an increase of 5.7 percent. Output rose 0.87 percent on the month after increasing 0.39 percent previously.

Stronger growth in industrial production in November was broad-based across sectors. Manufacturing output rose 6.7 percent on the year after increasing 5.1 percent previously, mining output rose 3.9 percent after a previous increase of 2.9 percent, and output in the utilities sector rose 9.9 percent after a previous increase of 1.5 percent.

Officials characterised today's data as evidence that"the national economy further consolidated its good momentum" and that conditions are"turning for the better". However, although industrial production and retail sales both recorded stronger year-over-year growth in November, weakness in the property market remains a major drag on the economy. PMI surveys published earlier in the month also showed ongoing subdued conditions in the Chinese economy. The comments from officials, however, suggest that they remain comfortable with current policy settings for now, in line with previous statements.

The monthly activity data published today showed industrial production was stronger than the consensus forecast, while retail sales were weaker and investment was in line with expectations. The China RPI and RPI-P are unchanged at plus 7 and plus 20 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Year-over-year growth in industrial production is expected to accelerate to 5.7 percent in November versus growth of 4.6 percent in October which was just above expectations and led by a 5.1 percent rise in manufacturing output.

Definition

Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.

Description

Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.

The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
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