| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% |
Highlights
Italy's unemployment rate retreated to 7.6 percent in the third quarter in line with the consensus forecast -- from an upwardly revised 7.7 percent in the previous three months (initially reported at 7.6 percent).
The decline in joblessness came as employment rose by 65,000 in the June-to-September quarter, an increase of 0.3 percent.
Unemployment has fallen quite dramatically over the 2023, with the jobless rate sitting at 7.9 percent in the opening quarter. However, that run may come to be coming to an end, with the rate rising to 7.8 percent in October from 7.6 percent in September.
Nonetheless, other gauges of economic activity have held up reasonably well at the start of the final quarter, with retail sales volumes rising by 0.3 percent in October and industrial production falling by less than expected in the same month.
The employment reading comes ahead of Thursday's eurozone interest rate announcement. The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave policy on hold, but investors will be hoping for clues as to when the governing council when consider reducing rates, with markets now expecting a cut as soon as the first quarter of 2024.
The latest data leave the RPI at positive two and the RPI-P at 33 meaning that the Italian economy is outperforming expectations.
The decline in joblessness came as employment rose by 65,000 in the June-to-September quarter, an increase of 0.3 percent.
Unemployment has fallen quite dramatically over the 2023, with the jobless rate sitting at 7.9 percent in the opening quarter. However, that run may come to be coming to an end, with the rate rising to 7.8 percent in October from 7.6 percent in September.
Nonetheless, other gauges of economic activity have held up reasonably well at the start of the final quarter, with retail sales volumes rising by 0.3 percent in October and industrial production falling by less than expected in the same month.
The employment reading comes ahead of Thursday's eurozone interest rate announcement. The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave policy on hold, but investors will be hoping for clues as to when the governing council when consider reducing rates, with markets now expecting a cut as soon as the first quarter of 2024.
The latest data leave the RPI at positive two and the RPI-P at 33 meaning that the Italian economy is outperforming expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Monthly data point to a third quarter rate of 7.6 percent following a probably upwardly revised 7.7 percent in the second quarter.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. In addition to the quarterly data, a less detailed monthly report is also available.
Description
Unemployment data are published on a quarterly basis and are very old by the time they are released (they are published about 11 weeks after the end of the reference quarter). The data are published both by the number of persons out of work and by the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is obtained from the ratio between persons seeking employment and the total labor force as measured by the labor force survey (LFS). Italy uses the International Labour Organisation criteria as adopted by Eurostat to compile the data.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
