Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | -1.1% | -2.0% |
Highlights
Output fell by 0.2 percent in October, a bit better than the consensus forecast of a 0.3 percent decline, while production rose by 0.1 percent in September, beating the original reading of no change on the month.
On a calendar adjusted annual basis, production slumped by 1.1 percent, a shallower decline than the unrevised 2.0 percent fall in September.
Manufacturing declined by 1.6 percent on an annual basis, with an 11.8 percent decline output of wood, paper and printing accounting for some of the weakness. Textile manufacturing slumped by 11.3 percent. Isat, the Italian statistical agency, does not provide month-over-month sector breakdown in initial reports.
The decline in production follows a significant repricing of European rate expectations this week; many analysts have brought forward forecasts of a rate cut to the first quarter of next year after perennially hawkish European Central Bank official Isabel Schnabel recently said that interest rates have peaked.
ECB rate setters have now entered a quiet period ahead of next week's governing council meeting at which their deliberations will be informed by detailed new economic forecasts.
The latest data take the Italian RPI to negative five and the RPI-P to positive 23.