Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Highlights
Gross domestic product rose by 0.1 percent, outperforming the flat outcome reported last month, which was also the consensus estimate. Output rose by 0.1 percent over the same quarter of last year, also beating the previous estimate of no change.
Consumer spending was surprisingly perky in the third quarter, rising by 0.6 percent over the previous period. Exports rose by 0.6 percent while imports slumped by 2.0 percent, suggesting that trade exerted a significant upward influence on GDP.
Italy's performance topped third quarter output in both France and Germany, where GDP declined by 0.1 percent in both countries. That's reinforced this week's narrative of a possible European Central Bank rate cut as soon as the middle of next year.
The latest data leave the RPI at minus 23 and the RPI-P at 22.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.