| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Jun-23 | 11.552 | 97.1% | 1.678 | 102.7% | 1.957 | 95.0% | 6.025 |
| Jul-23 | 11.204 | 98.2% | 1.613 | 91.4% | 1.722 | 94.4% | 6.007 |
| Aug-23 | 11.030 | 97.7% | 2.003 | 94.9% | 1.884 | 94.0% | 5.992 |
| Sep-23 | 11.094 | 97.8% | 2.206 | 106.1% | 1.663 | 89.4% | 5.989 |
| Oct-23 | 11.580 | 100.6% | 2.181 | 104.6% | 1.763 | 97.7% | 5.935 |
| Nov-23 | 11.943 | 101.8% | 1.868 | 98.1% | 1.751 | 92.6% | 5.720 |
| Dec-23 | 12.006 | 102.7% | - | - | - | - | 5.917 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Dec | 102.2% | 101.8% | 102.5% | 97.6% |
| Placements | Nov | 96.1% | 94.4% | 98.3% | 96.8% |
| Marketings | Nov | 93.4% | 92.8% | 94.5% | 101.2% |
Highlights
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of November at 98.1% of a year ago versus an average trade expectation of 96.1% and a range of expectations from 94.4% to 98.3%. November marketings came in at 92.6% of last year versus 93.4% expected (range 92.8%-94.5%). On-feed supply as of December 1st was 102.7% versus 102.2% expected (range 101.8%-102.5%).
The report was bearish across the board. Placements came in near the upper end of trade expectations, and marketings were lower than the low end of the expected range. On-feed supply was also higher than expected, which is bearish for the nearby contract. After the short covering rally of the past couple of weeks, we would expect the market to open 0.50-1.00 lower on Tuesday.
The report was bearish across the board. Placements came in near the upper end of trade expectations, and marketings were lower than the low end of the expected range. On-feed supply was also higher than expected, which is bearish for the nearby contract. After the short covering rally of the past couple of weeks, we would expect the market to open 0.50-1.00 lower on Tuesday.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
