ConsensusActualPrevious
Index43.844.243.1

Highlights

The final data confirmed another miserable month for Eurozone manufacturing in November. Although the 43.8 flash sector PMI was revised up to 44.2 to stand more than a point above October's final 43.1, it remains deep in contraction territory.

On a positive note, although output, new orders and purchasing activity all posted fresh declines, the rate of fall in each case was less than in October. That said, employment was pared by the most since August 2020 and the decrease in stocks of purchases was the second-fastest since December 2012. In addition, output would have fallen more sharply but for another decline in backlogs. Still, business confidence about the year ahead improved and growth expectations climbed to their highest level in three months. At the same time, inflation developments softened, with input costs posting another marked drop and output charges also reduced further.

In terms of national PMIs, the best performing member state was Greece (50.9) which, alongside Ireland (50.0) was the only member to match or beat the 50-expansion threshold. Elsewhere, Spain (46.3), the Netherlands (44.9), Italy (44.4), France (42.9), Germany (42.6) and Austria (42.2) all pointed to an ongoing recession.

The minor headline adjustment still leaves a gloomy prognosis for Eurozone manufacturing which looks on course to subtract from fourth quarter GDP growth. The good news is that the downswing is showing tentative signs of flattening out and weak demand is clearly putting downside pressure on costs. As such, the data should not trouble the ECB. Todays' update puts the region's RPI at minus 4 and the RPI-P at 13, meaning that overall economic activity is running much as expected despite some undershoot by prices.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the flash data leaving the headline index at 43.8, up from October's final 43.1.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). Released by S&P Global, national data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. These countries together account for an estimated 89 percent of Eurozone manufacturing activity.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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