ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Public Sector Net Borrowing£12.0B£13.41B£13.97B£15.10B
Ex-Public Sector Banks£12.9B£14.33B£14.90B£16.03B

Highlights

Public sector finances improved in November but only from a weaker revised position in October. Overall public sector net borrowing (PSNB) was £13.41 billion, down from the previous period's £15.10 billion but on the high side of the market consensus. However, it was £0.79 billion below its reading a year ago. Excluding public sector banks (PSNB-X), the deficit stood at £14.33 billion after an upwardly revised £16.03 billion in the previous month and £15.24 billion in November 2022. This was the fourth highest November borrowing since records began in 1993.

Central government's receipts were £77.6 billion or £3.6 billion more than in last November and the highest ever November outturn. Total expenditure was £87.6 billion, just £0.7 billion more than a year ago and similarly a record for the month.

Combined, this left public sector net debt (PSND-X) at £2,6471.4 billion or around 97.5 percent of UK GDP. This was 2.8 percentage points higher than in November 2022 and sustains levels last seen in the early 1960s.

At £116.4 billion, the PSNB-X over the financial year to date was £24.4 billion larger than over the same period in FY2022/23 and the second highest ever. As such, the data underline the limited room for fiscal manoeuvre afforded the government ahead of a probable general election next year. Today's report leaves both the UK RPI and RPI-P at minus 35. Overall economic activity is undershooting market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Overall net borrowing (PSNB) is seen declining to £12.0 billion and to £12.9 billion excluding public sector banks.

Definition

The public sector net borrowing requirement (PSNB) is the difference between the sector's receipts and expenditure and so provides a simple measure of government fiscal policy. In response to the global economic crisis in 2008/09 the UK government introduced a number of measures designed to show the underlying state of public sector finances by omitting temporary distortions caused by financial interventions. It bases its fiscal policy on these measures. To this end, the underlying gauge of government borrowing watched most closely by financial markets is the PSNB-X which takes overall net borrowing (PSNB) but excludes public sector banks.

Description

Changes in public sector finances can be used to determine the thrust of the government's fiscal policy. Generally speaking when the government has a rising deficit (or falling surplus) it is loosening its fiscal stance with a view to boosting economic activity. When its deficit is falling (or surplus rising), fiscal policy is being tightened in order to slow economic growth. However, sometimes changes in government financial positions can be due to factors outside of the government's control and do not signal an explicit shift in policy. This means that great care is needed in interpreting the data.
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