ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index50.150.748.7
Services Index50.550.949.5

Highlights

Private sector business activity was revised stronger in the final look at November. The 50.1 the flash composite output index boosted to 50.7, now fully 2 points firmer than October's final print and further above the 50-expansion threshold. This was the first positive growth signal since July.

In large part the overall improvement was attributable to services where the final sector PMI weighed in at 50.9, up from November's 49.5 and similarly its highest level since July. New orders expanded modestly but activity was also supported by a sixth successive fall in backlogs. Still, employment gained ground and business sentiment about the year ahead was a little more buoyant too.

Meantime, inflation news was more robust. Input costs rose and faster wage growth in particular helped to boost output price inflation to a 4-month high.

In sum, the final November results are clearly on the strong side of earlier market expectations but underlying trends mean that recession risks have not gone away. That said, inflationary pressures in services will remain an issue for at least some BoE MPC members and next week's probable vote for no change in Bank Rate could well be split again. Today's report boosts the UK's RPI and RPI-P to 31 and 29 respectively. Both measures show overall economic activity running somewhat hotter than forecast.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected leaving the key composite output index at 50.1, up from Octobers's 48.7.

Definition

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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