ConsensusActualPrevious
Level46.747.244.8

Highlights

Manufacturing activity was revised a little stronger in the final data for November. At 47.2, the amended sector PMI was 0.5 points above its flash estimate and now some 2.4 points higher than its final October print. This is its best reading since April. Manufacturing remains in the doldrums but still seems to be holding up better than generally expected.

Output fell for a ninth straight month but at a slightly slower pace than at thew start of the quarter. That said, this was its ninth straight decline. New orders were also lower with exports extending their unbroken slide to some 22 months, but similarly the drop here was also less steep than previously. Elsewhere, headcount was trimmed and input buying reduced but business confidence improved with around 53 percent of companies expecting an increase in production over the coming year compared to 10 percent expecting a contraction.

Inflation news is mixed with another fall in input costs contrasting with a small rise in output prices as firms tried to repair battered profit margins.

In sum, UK manufacturing is still struggling but the downswing seems to be less marked than many feared implying less of a potential hit to fourth quarter GDP growth. To this end, today's update lifts the UK RPI to 14 and the RPI-P to 10, both measures showing overall economic activity running a little ahead of expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the flash data leaving the headline index at 46.7, up from October's final 44.8.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The survey covers more than 600 industrial companies and is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the and S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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