| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Rate | 3.775M | 3.650M to 3.810M | 3.82M | 3.79M |
| Month over Month | 0.8% | -4.1% | ||
| Year over Year | -7.3% | -14.6% |
Highlights
The NAR data on sales of existing homes show a 0.8 percent rise to 3.82 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in November after an unrevised 3.79 million units in October. Home resales are down 7.3 percent compared to a year ago. The November level is not materially different from the consensus of 3.78 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
The pace of home resales remains constrained by lean inventories as well as affordability issues associated with mortgage rates at 23-year highs and a competitive market that is keeping prices up. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the November pace of sales reflects mortgage rates and contracts secured in September and October, not the declines in mortgage rates that occurred in November. He said,"We may not see any meaningful recovery for two to three months" in the pace of sales until potential homebuyers get into the mindset that purchasing is again more affordable.
Sales of single-family existing homes are up 0.9 percent in November to 3.41 million units after 3.38 million units in October and are down 7.3 percent from 3.68 million units in November 2022. Sales of multi-unit homes are unchanged at 410,000 in November from October and down 6.8 percent from 440,000 a year ago.
The supply of homes available for sale is little changed at 3.5 months' worth in November after 3.6 months in October and 3.3 in November 2022. Supply remains thin as current mortgage holders who captured low rates prior to the fall of 2022 are not inclined to sell at present despite elevated home values. The median price for an existing home is down 1.0 percent to $387,600 in November and follows the usual pattern of price declines in the second half of the year. However, prices are up 4.0 percent compared to a year ago, which points to ongoing competition for units as they come on to the market.
The average number of days a home is listed is up to 25 days in November after 23 days in October and 24 days in November 2022. In November, 62 percent of homes were on the market less than one month compared to 66 percent in October.
The share of first-time home buyers is little changed at 31 percent in November after 28 percent in October and 28 percent in November 2022. Yun noted,"This is clearly not the usual closer to 40 percent that we would like to see".
The pace of home resales remains constrained by lean inventories as well as affordability issues associated with mortgage rates at 23-year highs and a competitive market that is keeping prices up. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the November pace of sales reflects mortgage rates and contracts secured in September and October, not the declines in mortgage rates that occurred in November. He said,"We may not see any meaningful recovery for two to three months" in the pace of sales until potential homebuyers get into the mindset that purchasing is again more affordable.
Sales of single-family existing homes are up 0.9 percent in November to 3.41 million units after 3.38 million units in October and are down 7.3 percent from 3.68 million units in November 2022. Sales of multi-unit homes are unchanged at 410,000 in November from October and down 6.8 percent from 440,000 a year ago.
The supply of homes available for sale is little changed at 3.5 months' worth in November after 3.6 months in October and 3.3 in November 2022. Supply remains thin as current mortgage holders who captured low rates prior to the fall of 2022 are not inclined to sell at present despite elevated home values. The median price for an existing home is down 1.0 percent to $387,600 in November and follows the usual pattern of price declines in the second half of the year. However, prices are up 4.0 percent compared to a year ago, which points to ongoing competition for units as they come on to the market.
The average number of days a home is listed is up to 25 days in November after 23 days in October and 24 days in November 2022. In November, 62 percent of homes were on the market less than one month compared to 66 percent in October.
The share of first-time home buyers is little changed at 31 percent in November after 28 percent in October and 28 percent in November 2022. Yun noted,"This is clearly not the usual closer to 40 percent that we would like to see".
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After October's lower-than-expected 3.79 million annual rate, existing home sales in November are expected to edge yet lower to a 3.775 million rate. Low inventory of homes for sale, high prices and high interest rates have been hurting sales.
Definition
Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.
Description
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
