| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter - Annual Rate | 5.2% | 5.0% to 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures - Annual Rate | 3.6% | 3.2% to 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% |
Highlights
The third estimate of third quarter GDP is revised lower to up 4.9 percent after 5.2 in the second estimate and above the up 2.2 percent and 2.1 percent in the first and second quarters, respectively. The third estimate is below the consensus of 5.2 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters, though overall growth remains strong.
The downward revision reflects slower growth in personal consumption expenditures, gross investment, and the change in inventories than previously estimated. The reading for gross domestic income (GDI) is another measure used in assessing the strength of the economy. In the third quarter, GDI is up 1.5 percent and unrevised from the second estimate, and higher than the up 0.5 percent in the first and second quarters of 2023.
In the third estimate of the third quarter personal consumption expenditures are up 3.1 percent, a downward revision from up 3.6 percent in the second estimate. The main source of revision is slower spending on services at up 2.2 percent in the third estimate from the previously report 3.0 percent in the second estimate. Spending on durables had a negligible downward revision to up 6.7 percent in the third estimate after up 6.8 percent in the second estimate. Spending on nondurables is revised higher to up 3.9 percent in the third estimate after up 3.5 percent in the second estimate. Overall, spending remains solid for the third quarter data. Government consumption expenditures are revised higher to up 5.8 percent in the third quarter after up 5.5 percent in the second estimate.
Gross investment spending is revised down to a still strong up 10.0 percent in the third quarter after the second estimate of up 10.5 percent. However, spending on fixed investment is revised a little higher to up 2.6 percent after the previous up 2.4 percent. Spending on nonresidential investment is a tad higher at up 1.4 percent in the third estimate after up 1.3 percent in the second estimate, while residential investment is stronger at up 6.7 percent after up 6.2 percent.
The change in private inventories is revised down to up $102.0 billion in the third estimate after up $110.7 billion in the second estimate. Net exports are revised up to a deficit of $779.2 billion in the third estimate after a deficit of $781.6 billion in the second estimate.
The underlying story about growth in the third quarter 2023 is not much changed and is still one of above-expectations expansion powered by solid spending.
The downward revision reflects slower growth in personal consumption expenditures, gross investment, and the change in inventories than previously estimated. The reading for gross domestic income (GDI) is another measure used in assessing the strength of the economy. In the third quarter, GDI is up 1.5 percent and unrevised from the second estimate, and higher than the up 0.5 percent in the first and second quarters of 2023.
In the third estimate of the third quarter personal consumption expenditures are up 3.1 percent, a downward revision from up 3.6 percent in the second estimate. The main source of revision is slower spending on services at up 2.2 percent in the third estimate from the previously report 3.0 percent in the second estimate. Spending on durables had a negligible downward revision to up 6.7 percent in the third estimate after up 6.8 percent in the second estimate. Spending on nondurables is revised higher to up 3.9 percent in the third estimate after up 3.5 percent in the second estimate. Overall, spending remains solid for the third quarter data. Government consumption expenditures are revised higher to up 5.8 percent in the third quarter after up 5.5 percent in the second estimate.
Gross investment spending is revised down to a still strong up 10.0 percent in the third quarter after the second estimate of up 10.5 percent. However, spending on fixed investment is revised a little higher to up 2.6 percent after the previous up 2.4 percent. Spending on nonresidential investment is a tad higher at up 1.4 percent in the third estimate after up 1.3 percent in the second estimate, while residential investment is stronger at up 6.7 percent after up 6.2 percent.
The change in private inventories is revised down to up $102.0 billion in the third estimate after up $110.7 billion in the second estimate. Net exports are revised up to a deficit of $779.2 billion in the third estimate after a deficit of $781.6 billion in the second estimate.
The underlying story about growth in the third quarter 2023 is not much changed and is still one of above-expectations expansion powered by solid spending.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The third estimate of third-quarter GDP is expected to remain unrevised at 5.2 percent growth. Personal consumption expenditures, at consensus growth of 3.6 percent, is also expected to remain unrevised.
Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.
Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.
Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.
The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP.
Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.
Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.
The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP.
Description
GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
Importance
Gross domestic product is the country's most comprehensive economic scorecard.
Interpretation
When gross domestic product expands more (less) rapidly that its potential, bond prices fall (rise). Healthy GDP growth usually translates into strong corporate earnings, which bode well for the stock market.
The four major categories of GDP -- personal consumption expenditures, investment, net exports and government -- all reveal important information about the economy and should be monitored separately. One can thus determine the strengths and weaknesses of the economy in order to assess alternatives and make appropriate financial investment decisions.
Economists and financial market participants monitor final sales -- GDP less the change in business inventories. When final sales are growing faster than inventories, this points to increases in production in months ahead. Conversely, when final sales are growing more slowly than inventories, they signal a slowdown in production.
It is useful to distinguish between private demand versus growth in government expenditures. Market players discount growth in the government sector because it depends on fiscal policy rather than economic conditions.
Market participants view increased expenditures on investment favorably because they expand the productive capacity of the country. This means that we can produce more without inciting inflationary pressures.
Net exports are a drag on total GDP because the United States regularly imports more than it exports, that is, net exports are in deficit. When the net export deficit becomes less negative, it adds to growth because a smaller amount is subtracted from GDP. When the deficit widens, it subtracts even more from GDP.
Gross domestic product is subject to some quarterly volatility, so it is appropriate to follow year-over-year percent changes, to smooth out this variation.
The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
Importance
Gross domestic product is the country's most comprehensive economic scorecard.
Interpretation
When gross domestic product expands more (less) rapidly that its potential, bond prices fall (rise). Healthy GDP growth usually translates into strong corporate earnings, which bode well for the stock market.
The four major categories of GDP -- personal consumption expenditures, investment, net exports and government -- all reveal important information about the economy and should be monitored separately. One can thus determine the strengths and weaknesses of the economy in order to assess alternatives and make appropriate financial investment decisions.
Economists and financial market participants monitor final sales -- GDP less the change in business inventories. When final sales are growing faster than inventories, this points to increases in production in months ahead. Conversely, when final sales are growing more slowly than inventories, they signal a slowdown in production.
It is useful to distinguish between private demand versus growth in government expenditures. Market players discount growth in the government sector because it depends on fiscal policy rather than economic conditions.
Market participants view increased expenditures on investment favorably because they expand the productive capacity of the country. This means that we can produce more without inciting inflationary pressures.
Net exports are a drag on total GDP because the United States regularly imports more than it exports, that is, net exports are in deficit. When the net export deficit becomes less negative, it adds to growth because a smaller amount is subtracted from GDP. When the deficit widens, it subtracts even more from GDP.
Gross domestic product is subject to some quarterly volatility, so it is appropriate to follow year-over-year percent changes, to smooth out this variation.
