Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 222K | 215K to 230K | 220K | 218K | 219K |
Initial Claims - Change | 1K | 7K | 8K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 220.75K | 220.00K | 220.25K |
Highlights
Continuing claims fell 64,000 to 1.861 million in lagging data for the November 25 week, partly offsetting the 84,000 increase recorded the previous week. This was the largest weekly drop since the July 15 week. Still, the four-week moving average rose 7,000 to 1.872 million, the highest level since the week ended December 11, 2021. The unemployment rate for insured workers edged down a tenth to 1.2 percent after a brief increase to 1.3 percent the previous week.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.