| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-City Adjusted - M/M | 0.6% | 0.2% to 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 20-City Unadjusted - M/M | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
| 20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y | 5.0% | 4.7% to 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% |
Highlights
Suggesting that demand remains robust while supply is constrained, Case-Shiller says its latest report shows that 11 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over month price increases in October.
The 20-city adjusted index rose 0.6 percent on the month in October to match Econoday's consensus for 0.6 percent. The unadjusted annual rate of increase rose to 4.9 percent to easily outpace September's 3.9 percent. The consensus was 5.0 percent for the year-on-year figure.
Leading cities are Detroit at 8.1 percent annual price growth, followed by San Diego at 7.2 percent, and New York at 7.1 percent.
The 20-city adjusted index rose 0.6 percent on the month in October to match Econoday's consensus for 0.6 percent. The unadjusted annual rate of increase rose to 4.9 percent to easily outpace September's 3.9 percent. The consensus was 5.0 percent for the year-on-year figure.
Leading cities are Detroit at 8.1 percent annual price growth, followed by San Diego at 7.2 percent, and New York at 7.1 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate rising 0.6 percent in October versus September's as-expected 0.7 percent increase. The annual rate is seen rising from 3.9 to 5.0 percent.
Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.
Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
