| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Balance | -30% | -11% | -36% |
Highlights
The CBI's new survey found a slowdown in the pace at which sales were falling in November. At minus 11 percent, the headline balance was well above October's minus 36 percent, the least negative since June and a good deal stronger than the market consensus. Even so, this was also its seventh straight sub-zero print and with actual sales declining a sizeable 0.9 percent on the month a year ago, the data were subject to some upside bias.
That said, a net 4 percent of firms expect an improvement in sales over the coming three months and this month's decrease in orders with suppliers was less severe than in October. Orders are also expected to fall at a slightly slower rate in December.
The November report lifts the UK's RPI to minus 8 and the RPI-P to 2. In broad terms, economic activity is performing much as the forecasters predicted.
That said, a net 4 percent of firms expect an improvement in sales over the coming three months and this month's decrease in orders with suppliers was less severe than in October. Orders are also expected to fall at a slightly slower rate in December.
The November report lifts the UK's RPI to minus 8 and the RPI-P to 2. In broad terms, economic activity is performing much as the forecasters predicted.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The headline sales balance is seen improving from minus 36 percent in October to a still very subdued minus 30 percent.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.
Description
This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.
