| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -25% | -35% | -26% |
Highlights
The CBI's November industrial trends survey found demand again contracting sharply and by more than expected. At minus 35 percent, down from October's minus 26 percent, the headline orders index posted its weakest level since January 2021 and was fully 10 percentage points below the market consensus. Accordingly, the measure also slid still further beneath its long-run average (minus 13 percent).
Adding to the gloom, past output (minus 17 percent after minus 6 percent) also fell at a faster pace and is not expected to recover in the next three months. Consequently, the sector looks likely to be a drag on fourth quarter GDP growth.
The November report may make for some downside risk to tomorrow's flash PMI survey but in any event, underlines the ongoing weakness of the manufacturing sector. It also reduces the UK's RPI to minus 28 and the RPI-P to minus 27, both values showing that overall economic activity is similarly falling short of expectations.
Adding to the gloom, past output (minus 17 percent after minus 6 percent) also fell at a faster pace and is not expected to recover in the next three months. Consequently, the sector looks likely to be a drag on fourth quarter GDP growth.
The November report may make for some downside risk to tomorrow's flash PMI survey but in any event, underlines the ongoing weakness of the manufacturing sector. It also reduces the UK's RPI to minus 28 and the RPI-P to minus 27, both values showing that overall economic activity is similarly falling short of expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The headline orders balance is expected top be little changed at minus 25 percent.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
