ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month-0.4%-0.3%0.8%0.0%
Year over Year-1.8%-3.1%-3.5%

Highlights

French consumers pulled in their horns last month, raising concerns that the weak economic growth of the third quarter could extend through the closing months of the year.

Spending on manufactured goods declined by 0.3 percent on the month in October, slightly better than the consensus forecast of a 0.4 percent decline, but below the unchanged reading of previous month. However, the September reading was revised sharply downward from the initially reported 0.8 percent increase.

On an annual basis, spending on manufactured goods declined by 1.8 percent, extending a downwardly revised 3.5 percent slump in September (originally reported as a 3.1 percent fall).

Spending on durable goods rose by 0.5 percent on the month, lifted by a 1.0 percent rise in transport equipment, but outlays on household durables fell by 0.1 percent.

Elsewhere, spending on food products slumped by 1.5 percent, while energy outlays declined by 2.5 percent on the month. Total household consumption on all goods declined by 0.9 percent last month after a flat reading in September.

The October decline comes after an unexpected rebound in household spending on the third quarter. Outlays on goods increased by 0.6 percent, according to gross domestic product data released on Thursday, with purchases of food increasing by 0.3 percent after a 1.7 percent slump in the previous period.

The latest data put the French RPI at negative 28 and the RPI-P at negative 20, meaning that overall economic activity is falling short of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Spending is seen falling 0.4 percent versus September, reversing half of that month's increase.

Definition

Consumption of manufactured goods by consumers is an indicator of consumer spending for household durable goods such as autos and furniture. The data are released separately as part of the report on total goods spending.

Description

This indicator is a measure of retail sales and is unique to France. It measures consumer spending for household durable goods such as autos and furniture. The data are seasonally and workday adjusted. These adjustments eliminate the fluctuations that are solely due to changes in the number of working days. The data appear to be particularly sensitive to the number of worked Saturdays. With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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