Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Year over Year | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
Highlights
Gross domestic product declined by 0.1 percent, according to revised data released on Thursday, reversing the originally reported 0.1 percent expansion. Forecasters expected no change from that flash estimate.
Output rose by an annual rate of 0.7 percent, unchanged from the initial report and in line with market expectations.
The economic contraction came despite a robust 0.6 percent jump in consumer spending, more than countering a 0.1 percent decline in the second quarter. Outlays on goods accounted for much of the strength, rising by 0.6 percent, with purchases of food increasing by 0.3 percent after a 1.7 percent slump in the previous period.
However, trade provided a substantial drag on growth, shaving 0.4 percentage points from third quarter GDP, after exports declined by 1.0 percent, partially reversing a 2.5 percent jump in the second quarter. Inventories changes subtracted another 0.2 percentage points from third quarter output.
The downward revision to growth could lead to reduced estimates of eurozone GDP data, due next week. The weaker performance will only strengthen the growing belief that the European Central Bank could be forced to consider rate hikes earlier than suggested by some of the more hawkish members of the governing council. Earlier this week, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel insisted that it's too early to begin envisioning a lower rate environment.
The latest data put the French RPI at minus 28 and the RPI-P at minus 20, meaning that overall economic activity is falling short of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.