| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% |
Highlights
Unemployment increased by more than expected in the third quarter, raising questions over whether Europe's great run of job creation is running out of steam.
The mainland jobless rate ticked up to 7.2 percent, well above the consensus forecast of 7.0 percent. Joblessness over the second quarter was revised upward to 7.0 percent from the initially reported 6.9 percent outcome.
Including overseas territories, unemployment rose by 64,000 to 2.285 million, adding to the 28,000 increase in the second quarter. That took the total jobless rate including overseas territories to 7.4 percent from 7.2 percent in the previous three months. The full-country employment rate fell to 68.3 percent from a downwardly revised 68.5 percent in the second quarter.
While the rise in unemployment exceeds expectations, the labour market remains relatively tight by historical standards; full-country joblessness stands well below the 8.2 percent touched in the final quarter of 2019, before the onset of Covid.
Despite that, the higher-than-expected rise in unemployment will do little to dispel the market belief that European interest rates have reached their peak. Various European Central Bank officials have repeated the company line that policy has become sufficiently restrictive if maintained to return inflation to the bloc's two percent target.
The latest data take the French RPI to minus 13 and the RPI-P to minus 6, meaning the economy is underperforming expectations, albeit by a narrow margin.
The mainland jobless rate ticked up to 7.2 percent, well above the consensus forecast of 7.0 percent. Joblessness over the second quarter was revised upward to 7.0 percent from the initially reported 6.9 percent outcome.
Including overseas territories, unemployment rose by 64,000 to 2.285 million, adding to the 28,000 increase in the second quarter. That took the total jobless rate including overseas territories to 7.4 percent from 7.2 percent in the previous three months. The full-country employment rate fell to 68.3 percent from a downwardly revised 68.5 percent in the second quarter.
While the rise in unemployment exceeds expectations, the labour market remains relatively tight by historical standards; full-country joblessness stands well below the 8.2 percent touched in the final quarter of 2019, before the onset of Covid.
Despite that, the higher-than-expected rise in unemployment will do little to dispel the market belief that European interest rates have reached their peak. Various European Central Bank officials have repeated the company line that policy has become sufficiently restrictive if maintained to return inflation to the bloc's two percent target.
The latest data take the French RPI to minus 13 and the RPI-P to minus 6, meaning the economy is underperforming expectations, albeit by a narrow margin.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The mainland jobless rate is expected to edge up a notch to 7.0 percent.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. It is based on the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The report contains data on both total joblessness and just mainland unemployment; the latter is regarded as the more significant.
Description
The data report the number of unemployed persons (quarterly average) for metropolitan France and for metropolitan France plus overseas departments. The metropolitan measure is regarded as the more useful guide.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
