| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.6% | 2.5% to 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
Highlights
Key points from Labor Force Survey
--Japan October jobless rate falls to 2.5% from September's 2.6% for 2nd straight monthly drop as job cuts dip, number of people starting to look for work plunges
--Employment up on year for 15th straight month, led by hotels, restaurants, communications; construction sheds jobs after recent gains
--Number of unemployed drops on year for 2nd straight month to lowest since January but still just above pre-pandemic level
Japanese payrolls posted their 15th straight rise on year in October as hotels, restaurants and information communications firms hired more workers to cope with widespread labor shortages while the unemployment rate fell to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent for the second straight monthly improvement, data released Friday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired fell for the third straight month and that of those who began looking for work plunged, offsetting a modest rise in the number of those who quit to look for other openings. People who had joined the labor market, unemployed, in the previous month appeared to have found a job.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at minus 4, just below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing slightly worse than expected after underperforming with a wider margin earlier. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at plus 8.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at a four-month low of 2.5 percent in October, down from September, when it fell to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent in August. It was slightly lower than the median economist forecast of 2.6 percent (forecasts ranged from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent).
The latest figure is below 2.8 percent seen in March but is still above the three-year low of 2.4 percent hit in January. It remains below the recent high of 3.1 percent reached in October 2020 but is above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global economic slump.
The jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
In its monthly economic report for November released last week, the government downgraded its overall assessment for the first time in 10 months in light of sluggish capital investment, saying the economy is still recovering moderately but that the pickup in some areas is pausing. It maintained its view on employment conditions after upgrading it for the first time in 11 months in June, saying they are"showing signs of improvement."
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 160,000 to an unadjusted 67.71 million in October for the 15th straight increase, led by non-regular jobs, particularly for women. It followed increases of 210,000 in September, 220,000 in August, 170,000 in July, 260,000 in June, 150,000 in May, 140,000 in April, 150,000 in March and 90,000 in February and a 430,000 surge in January.
The number of unemployed fell by 30,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.75 million in October, hitting the lowest since 1.67 million in January, after falling 50,000 in September, rising 90,000 in August and climbing 70,000 in July for the first rise in three months. It marked its first year-over-year rise in 21 months in March with a 130,000 jump. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 but is still above the 1.65 million level seen at the beginning of 2020.
The overall employment increase in October from a year earlier was led by a continued sharp rise in the hotels, restaurants and bars category, which has benefited from government subsidies for domestic traveling, pent-up domestic demand and a recovered inflow of foreign visitors. Employment also rose among information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers.
The construction industry shed workers on year after hiring actively in recent months. Employment in manufacturing was flat after a sharp drop in the prior month. The medical and welfare industry reduced workers for the second straight month.
Employment in the wholesale and retail industry continued rising at a slower pace after sharp gains in August and July. Financial firms continued to trim payrolls from year-earlier levels while the real-estate and goods leasing category posted a slight increase after recent declines.
--Japan October jobless rate falls to 2.5% from September's 2.6% for 2nd straight monthly drop as job cuts dip, number of people starting to look for work plunges
--Employment up on year for 15th straight month, led by hotels, restaurants, communications; construction sheds jobs after recent gains
--Number of unemployed drops on year for 2nd straight month to lowest since January but still just above pre-pandemic level
Japanese payrolls posted their 15th straight rise on year in October as hotels, restaurants and information communications firms hired more workers to cope with widespread labor shortages while the unemployment rate fell to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent for the second straight monthly improvement, data released Friday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired fell for the third straight month and that of those who began looking for work plunged, offsetting a modest rise in the number of those who quit to look for other openings. People who had joined the labor market, unemployed, in the previous month appeared to have found a job.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at minus 4, just below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing slightly worse than expected after underperforming with a wider margin earlier. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at plus 8.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at a four-month low of 2.5 percent in October, down from September, when it fell to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent in August. It was slightly lower than the median economist forecast of 2.6 percent (forecasts ranged from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent).
The latest figure is below 2.8 percent seen in March but is still above the three-year low of 2.4 percent hit in January. It remains below the recent high of 3.1 percent reached in October 2020 but is above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global economic slump.
The jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
In its monthly economic report for November released last week, the government downgraded its overall assessment for the first time in 10 months in light of sluggish capital investment, saying the economy is still recovering moderately but that the pickup in some areas is pausing. It maintained its view on employment conditions after upgrading it for the first time in 11 months in June, saying they are"showing signs of improvement."
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 160,000 to an unadjusted 67.71 million in October for the 15th straight increase, led by non-regular jobs, particularly for women. It followed increases of 210,000 in September, 220,000 in August, 170,000 in July, 260,000 in June, 150,000 in May, 140,000 in April, 150,000 in March and 90,000 in February and a 430,000 surge in January.
The number of unemployed fell by 30,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.75 million in October, hitting the lowest since 1.67 million in January, after falling 50,000 in September, rising 90,000 in August and climbing 70,000 in July for the first rise in three months. It marked its first year-over-year rise in 21 months in March with a 130,000 jump. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 but is still above the 1.65 million level seen at the beginning of 2020.
The overall employment increase in October from a year earlier was led by a continued sharp rise in the hotels, restaurants and bars category, which has benefited from government subsidies for domestic traveling, pent-up domestic demand and a recovered inflow of foreign visitors. Employment also rose among information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers.
The construction industry shed workers on year after hiring actively in recent months. Employment in manufacturing was flat after a sharp drop in the prior month. The medical and welfare industry reduced workers for the second straight month.
Employment in the wholesale and retail industry continued rising at a slower pace after sharp gains in August and July. Financial firms continued to trim payrolls from year-earlier levels while the real-estate and goods leasing category posted a slight increase after recent declines.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 15th straight rise on year in October as hospitals, hotels, restaurants and construction firms tried to secure more workers while the unemployment rate is forecast at 2.6 percent, unchanged from September, when it fell from 2.7 percent in August. People who had begun looking for work earlier appeared to have found a job in October.
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
