India's consumer price index rose 4.87 percent on the year in October, moderating from an increase of 5.02 percent in September and keeping inflation within the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2.0 percent to 6.0 percent. At the most recent policy meeting, held last month, officials left policy rates on hold at 6.50 percent, advising that they expect headline inflation will ease further over the rest of the current fiscal year. Nevertheless, they also highlighted upside risks to the inflation outlook, suggesting these will remain their primary focus in upcoming meetings.

The small decline in headline inflation reflects a similar moderation in the year-over-year increase in food and beverage prices, which account for more than half the weight of the CPI index. These prices rose 6.24 percent on the year after increasing 6.30 percent previously. Fuel and light charges, around 8 percent of the index, fell 0.39 percent on the year after falling 0.11 percent previously. Inflation in urban areas eased from 4.65 percent in September to 4.62 percent in October, while inflation in rural areas moderated from 5.33 percent to 5.12 percent.

Consumer prices are expected to ease back only marginally to 4.90 percent on the year in October versus September's 5.02 percent.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Within the overall CPI basket, food (47 percent) has easily the largest weight of any of the major components and a separate consumer foods price index is also released. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation and the latter is the policy target of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

CPI numbers are widely used as a macroeconomic indicator of inflation, as a tool by governments and central banks for inflation targeting and for monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for increase in prices. CPI is therefore considered as one of the most important economic indicators.

CPI numbers presently compiled and released at national level for India reflect the fluctuations in retail prices pertaining to specific segments of population in the country -- industrial workers, agricultural labourers and rural labourers. These indexes do not encompass all the segments of the population in the country and as such do not reflect true picture of the price behavior in the country. To overcome the above, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has started compiling new series of CPI for the entire urban population or CPI (Urban) and CPI for the entire rural population or CPI (Rural), which reflect the changes in the price levels of various goods and services consumed by the urban and rural population.